STANLEY CUP FINALS

NHL / Hockey

Written by Chase Howard

Colorado Avalanche Vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

We are officially set for the 2022 Stanley cup final and everything is aligned for this to be another great one. The Tampa Bay Lightning are back in the Stanley Cup Final for the third consecutive year, becoming only the fourth team in NHL history to ever do so, while the Avalanche meanwhile is looking to win only their third Stanley Cup in franchise history. Let's take a look at how these two got here before we break down the most important element of the series and make our pick.

Source (Background Photo): NHL

The Lightning battled through what many would call a difficult road to the Stanley Cup finals, starting with a tough seven-game series against the Toronto Maple Leafs, who was another trendy East pick themselves. The Lightning went down twice in the series, 1-0 and 3-2, before coming back to win the last two games. In the second round they were supposed to have a tough battle, one many people thought they were going to lose (my bad), against the top seed in the Eastern Conference the Florida Panthers. This however was not to be as the Lightning dominated the flow of action and swept the Panthers right out of the playoffs. Cooper and co. then met the resilient New York Rangers in the Eastern Conference Final. Despite losing the first two games in the series the Lightning, who never looked lost or frightened, quickly fought their way back, winning four straight to punch their ticket to the final stanza.

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Record 12-5, 3rd in Goals for %, 9th in Corsi %, 2nd in Save %

The Avalanche seemed to have an easier way to the Stanley Cup Final, as we witnessed them basically steamroll every opponent that crossed their path. First, the Avalanche unceremoniously dealt the Nashville Predators a four-game sweep, with defenseman Cale Makar running roughshod over the Preds, netting 10 points in the series. The St. Louis Blues in the second round certainly offered more of a fight throughout the series, however, given both their momentum and opportunity for rest it seemed inevitable that the Avalanche would prevail, where they eventually did so in six games. Last week they met the Edmonton Oilers in the Eastern Conference Finals, led by bona fide members of the best in the business conversation Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Despite this and coming off a tough Series against the blues, the Avalanche did not show any rust or reluctance in thrashing the Oilers in a four-game sweep, despite having starting netminder Darcy Kuemper injured in game one. Now Kuemper is seemingly good to go if needed and the Avalanche are all ready to play for a Stanley Cup.

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Record 12-2, 1st in Goals for %, 2nd in Corst %, 11th in Save %

Well, there are certainly a lot of things in play here, as there are a couple of prevailing factors that are very likely to play a major role in dictating who wins this series. As we briefly touched on at the end of the above paragraph, let's start with goaltending. For the Lightning, we have one of the most well-known goalies in the world, former Vezina winner and possible Conn Smythe frontrunner Andrei Vasilevskiy. Being one of the biggest reasons The Lightning are coming off back-to-back Stanley Cups, the reigning playoff MVP Vasilevskiy will certainly play a huge role in this series, as when he's hot he can appear unbeatable. This is likely his toughest test yet as the Avalanche has a bevy of high-quality scorers, an incredibly deep line-up, and a talented aggressive blue line. This Avalanche net minder whether Darcy Kuemper of Pavel Francouz will have a similarly tall order to fill. Kuemper or Francouz don't necessarily have to outdo Vasilevskiy, but they need to stand tall between the pipes and not let any weak goals get through, as this is likely to be a tight series.

If the incredibly deep and well-ran Avalanche have a weak spot it seems to be their penalty kill, which was abundantly clear as their most pedestrian unit throughout the regular season, finishing 15th in the league in percentage (79%). Yet they were able to turn it all when they counted against the Oilers going 9/11 against the incredibly potent McDavid power play. They're going to have to do it again as Tampa Bay while not quite as good as the Oilers in percentage these playoffs, still, generates an abundance of high danger scoring chances with the man advantage. The Lightning boasts a few of the best players with a man-up over the last few seasons. As Nikita Kucherov (4th), Victor Headman (6th), and Steven Stamkos (18th) are all in the top 20 of playoff points per 60 minutes over the last few seasons. If the Lightning can consistently strike on the power play it's going to be a tough series for the Avalanche.

Despite the well-known importance of the Big three players mentioned in the above paragraph and reigning Conn Smythe recipient Andrei Vasilevskiy I'm going to have to go with Brayden Point as the Tampa Bay Lightning X Factor. It's not a matter of if but when Point will return, having been out since game seven of the first round. The point was consistently one of Tampa's top performers during their repeat Stanley Cup championships and given the team is 8-2 with him out these playoffs, it's a little scary to think of what they might be able to do with him back in the lineup.

When it comes to Colorado, while I do expect Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon to play their usual large roles, scrappy yet skilled forward Nazem Kadri is the pick for the Avalanche X Factor. The Avalanche is referring to the thirty-one-year-old, who has not played since being removed in game three against the Oilers after a hit by Evander Kane, as day-to-day. Kadri brings a much-needed balance to the middle of the lineup, he is also coming off a career-best regular season and has played quite well so far in the playoffs racking up 14 points in 13 games. Kadri has the best Corsi mark on the Avs and often gets called upon to shut down the other team's top guys. In the meantime it will be crucial that whoever plays second-line centre for the Avs comes up clutch, JT Compher got the call in game one and played admirably, recording an assist on the overtime winner.

If either Kadri or Point returns, particularly if the other hasn’t, it could easily tip the scales of the series.

This is going to be a tough series anticipating a lot of momentum swings, bunches of goals, and an overall fast-paced play. The Lightning excels at clogging the neutral zone and blocking shots while the Avalanche is incredibly fast and very good at generating turnovers; make sure to keep your eyes peeled on the action. Overall as cool as it would be and as good as I'm sure Corey Perry would feel I'm going to have to stick with my gut and initial Stanley Cup pick the Colorado Avalanche.

Avalanche in 6

EDIT – After an intense game one last night, which saw the Avalanche go up in the first. Thanks to a beautiful pass from Mikko Rantanen to childhood friend Arturri Lehkonen, through the legs of Lightning penalty killer Pierre Edouard Bellemare making the score 3-1 Avs. The Lightning stormed back in the second period scoring twice in 38 seconds to tie it up, before eventually losing the nail bitter 4-3 in overtime. Vaselivskiy has to be happy that game 1 is over despite the loss as they have not been good to him this year. In the 2022 playoffs, game one Vasilevskiy is 1-3 with a 3.99 GAA and a .884 save %, while in game two-seven he is a robust 11-3 with a 1.90 GAA and a .930 save %. I’m not sure about you but boy am I excited for game two.