EASTERN FINAL PREVIEW: NEW YORK RANGERS VS TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING

NHL / Hockey

Written by Chase Howard

Expect a fairly different series over in the Eastern Conference finals in contrast to out West, as a defence, not offence will often be the focus. Tampa is looking to continue its quest to make history and become the first team to win three straight Stanley cups since the New York Islanders in the early 1980s. The Rangers meanwhile look to continue their resilient underdog run, where despite being down multiple times in both series, have been able to come back and win two game sevens to move on. The Lightning is likely to be their toughest test yet as they are in their third conference final in three years; making it six in the last eight years.

Source (Background Photo): NHL

The question of cooling off may be apparent for the Bolts, seeing as their quick dismantling of the Florida Panthers in the second round has led to a layoff dating back to May 23rd. While the Rangers are fresh off improving their playoff game elimination record to a perfect five for five, they have now played 15 games in the last 30 days. This will likely play a big role in this series and could be beneficial to both teams.

Tampa has likely been practicing hard and simulating games over their 8 days of rest but that is obviously very different from playoff hockey. While the Rangers other than one two-day break have been playing every other day and have had no chance to ease up off the throttle, which means one can't help but wonder if they’re coming in at full speed or running out of gas. I'm actually leaning towards the former. Adding to the intrigue it's easy to argue that Tampa Bay's recent run of success started with their 2015 seven-game Conference Finals victory over the New York Rangers, who likely want some revenge.

Both of these teams are smart with the puck, dangerous in front of the net and absolutely killer on special teams. This is all without mentioning two of the league's premier puck stoppers will be between the pipes in this series. Rangers’ netminder Igor Shesterkin is this season's frontrunner for the Vezina Trophy, a Hart finalist and has been absolutely brilliant when needed. He leads the playoffs in minutes played, shots against, and saves. Yet his playoff numbers are easily below his regular-season standard (GAA up 2.07 to 2.68 and save percentage down .935 to 9.28), however, Shesterkin has been big in elimination games 5-0 with 13 goals against (.930 save percentage).

Lighting goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has had the reverse experience as, despite issues against the Maple Leafs, Vasilevsky has improved on his regular-season numbers in the playoffs, only seeming to get stronger as we get deeper in the postseason. Vasilevskiy, the reigning Conn Smythe winner, is coming off a beautiful performance in the four-game sweep of the Florida Panthers, where he allowed only three goals on 154 shots in the series. This amounts to a 0.75 goals-against average and a .981 save percentage bringing his postseason record to 8-3 with a 2.22 GAA and a .932 save percentage. At this point, one has to truly appreciate Vasilevskiy’s playoff brilliance.

Since the 2020 playoffs, Vasilevskiy is 42-17 with seven shutouts, a 1.96 GAA and .932 save percentage. This makes him one of the best goalies in playoff history, with his .925 save percentage tied for third with Dominik Hasek, Tuukka Rask and Jean-Sebastien Giguere among goalies who have played at least 50 games. Despite the huge importance of the goalies in the series, I would say neither one is really the X Factor as we expect both to deliver. For the Tampa Bay Lightning Nikita Kucherov is the X Factor as he will play a very important role in this series with Brayden Point out (ditto for Nick Paul). Kucherov leads the Lightning with 15 points including seven against Florida and 11 postseason games. Kucherov is now third among active players with 142 playoff points in 124 games, behind only Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, establishing himself as a pretty good guy to have this time of year.

For the Rangers, despite the major roles played by Adam Fox and Chris Kreider I'm going to have to go with Mika Zibanejad as their x-factor. Zibanejad leads the Rangers in scoring and is third in overall playoff scoring with 7 goals and 12 assists for 19 points in 14 games. Magic Mika paces the Rangers forwards in time on ice per game and has created more goals this postseason than anybody not on Edmonton's top power-play unit. Special teams are likely to play a key role in the series as the Rangers' power play has been hovering around 33% these playoffs, while their penalty-kill has been excellent holding Carolina to only two goals on 18 opportunities in the second round. The Lightning meanwhile is not doing as well on the power play at 23% but their penalty-kill has been outstanding, allowing only one goal to the Panthers on 13 power plays.

Overall, be on the lookout for a tough defensive series where one good bounce of the puck could make all the difference, especially with both teams averaging about 19 blocked shots per game. While I’m expecting a back and forth series and would not discount Tampa, I’m all aboard the Blueshirt Bus, Rangers in seven.