BEARDOWN / BREAKDOWN 2021 THANKSGIVING TURKEY SPECIAL
SportsBeat!
Written by Conner Rowntree
This Special Edition of the BEARDOWN/breakdown will serve up a TURKEY of picks for American Thanksgiving in the best possible way! A written report with projected game scripts and a complete breakdown for each of the Thanksgiving Day Games!
This article is stuffed with all your NFL needs, dressed with some DFS action, and I guarantee you, our picks will be gravy!
Source: NFL / Getty Images (Background Image)
GAME 1 - 12:30 PM EST - CHICAGO BEARS (3-7) @ DETROIT LIONS (0-9-1)
The Chicago Bears visit the Detroit Lions to kick off Thanksgiving Day Football. This is the 19th time the Bears and Lions will play on Thanksgiving and the 184th time overall. Usually, Thanksgiving games come with playoff implications. This game, however, not so much. It’s a battle of second-string quarterbacks. The Lions, who’ve lost four straight Thanksgiving games, turn to Tim Boyle for his second consecutive start. He threw for just 92 yards with a pair of interceptions and a 41.0 quarterback rating last week. It doesn’t get much worse than that.
The Bears will have the Andy Dalton, The Red Rifle under center, to hunt down another win over the Lions to kick off Thanksgiving. Dalton completed his first two passes for over 80 yards and a touchdown on Sunday in relief of Justin Fields. One thing was certain, Dalton was out there to sling the rock, and you can expect more of that come Thursday. Dalton finished with 203 yards with a pair of TD passes in just under two-quarters of work.
David Montgomery averaged over 4 YPC last week against a Ravens team that has given up the second-fewest rushing yards this season. In contrast, the Lions have given up the second-most and just gave up over 180 rush yards last week.
Matt Nagy has never lost to the Detroit Lions in his tenure as Chicago Bears Head Coach. With that said, this could be Nagy’s last stand.
Jordan Shultz of Yahoo reported on Monday that Matt Nagy has lost the locker room | Source: Barstool Chicago
With his Job on the line, Nagy should turn to Dalton to cut loose come Thursday. Dalton is a perfect 2-0 against Detroit in his career, averaging over 300 yards per game and a QB passer rating of 104.9. However, The Lions did hold Baker Mayfield to under 180 yards with a pair of interceptions last week.
The Lions have found some pride of late, resulting in consecutive gritty performances against solid AFC North playoff contenders. And a big plus for Lions fans, Detroit's tie against Pittsburgh Steelers ensures they won't be the first team in NFL history to go 0-17.
A large part of their recent dare I say, success is an explosive run attack. D'Andre Swift rushed for 136 yards on 9.7 YPC last week against a Browns defence tied for the sixth-fewest YPC against this season. Swift and the Lions rush attack face a banged-up Bears D missing key defensive pieces come Thanksgiving. Despite the absence of Khalil Mack, Eddie Jackson and Akiem Hicks, the Bears were able to limit the Ravens' fourth-ranked rush attack on Sunday and the Bears' defensive front racked up six sacks on nine QB hits! The pass game, via a late deep shot to Sammy Watkins, caused their defensive implosion.
Expect this to be a low-scoring divisional affair. Both teams have so-many holes on offence from both injuries and a simple lack of talent. On the defensive side of the rock, both squads are playing inspired defence. It's not about the playoffs anymore; it's about pride. With that in mind, this should be a low-scoring grudge match to determine the bottom feeders of the NFC North.
PICK IS IN: Bears Win, Bears Cover -3, Under 42.5 points
Bears Defenders celebrate at Soldier Field | Source: USA Today
GAME 2 - 4:30 PM EST - LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (5-5) @ DALLAS COWBOYS (7-3)
The Las Vegas Raiders are in Dallas for a Thanksgiving matinée matchup against the Cowboys. Vegas enters Thursday losers of three consecutive contests. Lucky for the Raiders, the Cowboys aren't fairing much better, losers of two of their last three.
Something has to give in Dallas on Thanksgiving, and in all likelihood, that will be the Raiders defence. Yes, Las Vegas was as stout as a pint of Guinness on the backend to start the season. However, they've given up 41 points to the Kansas City Chiefs and 32 points to the Cincinnati Bengals in consecutive outings. Both of those teams have solid offences, with similar playmakers to those of the Cowboys. Ja'marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb will burn you from the slot, Joe Mixon and Ezekiel Elliott will keep you guessing with cheeky cuts through the trenches, and Dak Prescott is probably the closest thing to Pat Mahomes in the NFL, not named Patrick Mahomes. The difference is the Cowboys are the only NFL team ranked top 5 in both pass YPG and rush YPG this season, something neither the Bengals nor Chiefs can boast. If anything, Dallas should hand Vegas their worst but-whooping of the three, which is a scary thought for Raider fans.
The Raiders' offence simply doesn't matchup up to that of the Cowboys. Las Vegas has scored 16 points or less in three straight games, with Derrick Carr throwing at least one interception in all three. On Thursday, Carr will have a hard time getting started against a Dallas D with 15 interceptions, good enough for second in the NFL.
There is simply 0 confidence to be had in the Raiders' offence both on the field and in a fantasy perspective. The Vegas defence has been smacked around, and the Cowboys have a habit of beating up on inferior opponents. They'll do it again come Thursday.
PICK IS IN: Cowboys Win, Cowboys Cover -7.5, Under 50.5
Source: Pinterest
GAME 3 - 8:20 PM EST – BUFFALO BILLS (6-4) @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (7-3)
The Buffalo Bills head to New Orleans to face the Saints under the Prime-Time Thanksgiving lights. Come 8:20, Thursday night; you'll most likely be grabbing a slice of pie and tuning into a Bills team that the Indianapolis Colts gave a healthy serving of humble pie on Sunday. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor scored five touchdowns on route to a 41-15 thrashing of the Bills in Buffalo. Before that game, Buffalo had allowed just five touchdowns to RB this season.
Now Buffalo gets a Saints team that has been solid against the pass on paper this season. However, since week eight, the Saints have allowed 29.3 PPG, a 107.9 opposing QB passer rating and the most fantasy PPG to QBs… Que, Josh Allen. Allen is a player who can extend plays downfield with his arm and lower his shoulder to break the goal line. The Wyoming University product hasn't lost consecutive starts since weeks 5-6 of last season.
Each of the Bills' last 14 wins has been by 10+ points, and this game shows little signs of being any different. Trevor Siemian threw a pair of picks last week, including a pick-six. He doesn't get a holiday come Thanksgiving, either. The Bills D ranks atop of the NFL in completion percentage against and yards per attempt.
Alvin Kamara is the "X" factor here. If he plays, the Saints look entirely different on offence. However, Kamara hasn't suited up since week nine, and it seems doubtful he'll be ready in a short week. Without Kamara, the Saints are averaging just 4.3 points in the first half in the past three games. Buffalo is allowing the second-fewest first-half points this season.
PICK IS IN: Bills Win, Bills Cover -6, Under 46.5
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