SECOND HALF PREVIEW: SOTO, THE ORIOLES & A WILD CARD FRENZY

MLB / Baseball

Written by Gus Cousins

Source (Background photos): Getty Images

THE JUAN SOTO SWEEPSTAKES

As fascinating as a trade for Juan Soto may be in theory, only a handful of teams actually have the resources to pull it off. The Blue Jays, as it turns out, are one of those teams - don’t get your hopes up though, I don’t believe for one second Toronto pulls the trigger on a deal like that.

A trade is only one part of it, as whichever team offers Washington said king’s ransom would then have to fork over around 500 million dollars in a long-term deal. Adding on, Soto is under the guidance of notoriously hard-to-deal-with Agent Scott Boras.

Beyond the fact that Toronto would likely have to fork over a smattering of top prospects + Bichette + another MLB’er or two (Gurriel Jr.? Hernandez?), Vladdy’s big payday is coming up as well. Punting the farm and then having to pay both Soto and Guerrero Jr. massive amounts of cash is a risky move. Plus, who are we kidding - it’s Shapiro and Atkins.

In news that astounds nobody, the Yankees have been linked to Juan Soto as one of the more realistic possible destinations. New York would have few gripes about paying Soto and heading over the Luxury Tax Threshold, and they have a number of extremely valued prospects - SS Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza as well as 19-year-old OF phenom Jasson Dominguez. The Cardinals and their plethora of young talent, as well as the Dodgers and their endless stream of resources, are two other noteworthy possibilities.

Soto might be moved, but the likeliest outcome is that the Nationals wait until the offseason and regroup before making an impulse decision on one of the league’s brightest stars (who’s still only 23!).

THE BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Three and a half months ago - when the season began - expectations in Baltimore were minimum. Most predictions had them anywhere between 60-70 wins at the most (I had them at 56 wins, foolish me) with the hope that players like Adley Rutschman and Grayson Rodriguez can begin to take that next step to the big league.

Present day, Baltimore finds themselves sitting at 46-46 heading into the All-Star Break - only three and a half games back of the final AL Wild Card! A fantastic story to be sure, and one that’s allowed the Orioles to garner a bit of a national following. Similar to Seattle prior to the ending of the 2021 season, the Mariners found themselves with somewhat of a cult following too. The Mariners ultimately came up just short of the final AL Wild Card spot, but much of the attention has spilled over into this year. Baltimore won 11 of their last 13 games, a feat only outdone by, you guessed it, the Seattle Mariners who stormed into the break on a 14-game winning streak.

While Orioles’ Top Prospect Grayson Rodriguez has yet to make his MLB debut, the team has been gaining success through a number of ex-castouts from other teams. Jorge Lopez, Baltimore’s lone All-Star this year, was let go by both Milwaukee and Kansas City before finding a home with the Orioles. The ex-Starter-turned-Reliever had a dominant first half, posting a 1.62 ERA and career highs across almost every notable category. The 29-year-old signed a 1 year/1.5 million dollar deal before the season and, if Baltimore continues to tread water to the Trade Deadline, may not be the selling piece that everybody assumed he would be. Dillon Tate, another outstanding Baltimore reliever, was originally a first-round pick by the Rangers - he would then be sent to New York in the Carlos Beltran deal during 2016, and then dealt to Baltimore in 2018 when Zack Britton was sent to the Yankees. Rookie reliever Felix Bautista and ex-Astro reliever Cionel Perez - who have a 1.72 and 1.45 ERA each, respectively - have helped solidify Baltimore’s ‘pen in a big way. Cedric Mullins, Trey Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle, and Austin Hays have been the meat of the Orioles’ lineup, with 21-year-old Gunnar Henderson (#2 Prospect) smashing the ball in AAA.

I wouldn’t expect Baltimore to be big buyers OR sellers at this year’s Trade Deadline, although their 0.1% chance to make the playoffs has since risen to a whopping 13% after their recent hot streak.

THE AL WILD CARD

As of July 18th, there are seven legitimate teams vying for three Wild Card spots. The Rays, Mariners, and Blue Jays currently occupy them, while Boston, Cleveland, Baltimore, and Chicago are on the outside looking in.

I don’t see any distinct possibility of the Rays missing the playoffs - they are too solid of a team to crumble, and year after year after year continue to prove how tough they are. By process of elimination, that means two spots remain for the other six teams. Chaos. Each team has its faults - Chicago, for example, is under the toxic spell of Tony La Russa. I’m not entirely sure how the White Sox front office is so oblivious to one of their major roadblocks, but I guarantee every other team in that division hopes the well-past-his-prime manager drags Chicago down with him. Now, that leaves Seattle, Toronto, Boston, Baltimore, and Cleveland.

As boring as it sounds, my gut tells me that the way the Wild Card standings are NOW is how they’re going to end up for the most part. Baltimore will, unfortunately, come crashing down to Earth I suspect and until Boston addresses…a lot, they will be at a distinct disadvantage too. Cleveland’s pitching has kept them in the race, with Bieber, McKenzie, and Quantrill all having excellent first-half. Minnesota is barely hanging onto the top seed in the AL Central - only two games up on Cleveland - and I wouldn’t be surprised if a scenario arises in which the AL Central race is more doable than the Wild Card race. Weird, but it’s happened before.

That said, I would more than welcome Baltimore somehow grabbing a Wild Card spot. They’re a fun story, and who doesn’t love an underdog? Last year it was Seattle’s turn to be ‘America’s Team’ and this year it might just be the black-and-orange birds of Baltimore.