NFL WEEK 8 PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD

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Written by Aaron Cantin

We are approaching the halfway mark for the NFL season and you're a liar if you said at the beginning of the season the only remaining undefeated team by Week 8 would be the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals have looked like the best team in the NFL but they also have not had the toughest opponents. That changes on Thursday. As for the bottom of the league? Well, that is close to as expected. The Lions are still winless. Poor Detroit. The Kansas City Chiefs have been the disappointment of the season to date although I still see that changing. The Bengals meanwhile have been the surprise to date, particularly Ja’Marr Chase. What a rookie year he’s having. Let’s break down each game heading into Week 8 - note these predictions are against the spread.

Source: Bleacher Report | Getty Images

Game of the Week: Green Bay (6-1) at Arizona (7-0)

Usually, when I see that Aaron Rodgers is playing in primetime, I automatically pick the Packers because I hate betting against Rodgers, especially when he's playing at night. However, I do have one rule that supersedes the "Don't pick against Aaron Rodgers" rule and it's "Don't pick against an undefeated team at home, especially when that undefeated team has Kyler Murray." The Packers will also likely be missing their best offensive player not named Aaron Rodgers. The Packers offense without Davante Adams is like trying to ride a bike uphill, except the bike doesn't have a chain. Sure, it's still possible, but it's likely going to be painful and slow and nothing is going to go the way you want.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals -6

Lock of the Week: Chiefs (-10) over Giants

There's no way the Chiefs have another lifeless lackluster performance. This screams get-well game at home against the Giants, who are operating as a shell of a team, especially offensively. The defense also has to be embarrassed by not showing up in Tennessee and will be challenged to go after Daniel Jones well at home with a prime-time emotional bump. Patrick Mahomes will see the offense go back to basics of running often and protecting the ball and that should be enough to pull away, after a few signature big pass plays, of course.

Upset of the Week: Steelers (+3) over Browns

The Steelers have a (black) and golden opportunity coming off a bye to get an important road division win in the tough AFC North. Cleveland should have a better bill of health in some areas, but it still may be missing key offensive players. Pittsburgh will be well-rested and figure out a few more things to support Najee Harris and Ben Roethlisberger in the offense and the defense will take advantage of a break against a lesser attack.

The Rest of the Week

Philadelphia at Detroit

The Eagles are 1-5 in their past six games and the depressing part for Philly fans is that the same thing seems to happen every week: The Eagles fall behind by five touchdowns to start and then mount a furious comeback that almost always falls short.

The twist here is that the Lions are the opposite: They take a lead in almost every game and then find a new way to blow it every week. I mean, this year alone, they've lost on a 66-yard field goal to a team that's currently 5-2 (Ravens), they blew a 10-0 lead to a team that's currently 6-1 (Rams) and they led at halftime against another team that's currently 6-1 (Packers). Not only did they lose all of those games, but they also lost on a 54-yard field goal to the Vikings.

Pick: Lions +3.5

Tennessee at Indianapolis

In most instances, I'm probably not qualified to give advice on how to make a defensive game plan in the NFL, but I think I am here and that's because the Colts game plan should be pretty simple this week: They need to stop Derrick Henry. In his past four games against Indy, Henry has averaged 135.8 yards and one touchdown per game. Even if you don't know anything about football, you probably know that if you're giving up 135.8 yards per game to the other team's best player, you're most likely not going to win. When these two teams met back in Week 3, Henry ran for 113 yards in a 25-16 win for Tennessee. At this point, I feel like the only way for the Colts to stop him is they put 11 in the box. The advantage for the Titans this time around is that if the Colts go all-in on stopping Henry, they should be able to throw the ball because they're actually going to be fully healthy.

Pick: Tennessee -1

Jacksonville at Seattle

Through seven weeks, it's become pretty clear that the Seahawks have one major flaw and that flaw is their entire defense. Having a major flaw isn't necessarily a bad thing, but it is when your star quarterback is out with an injury. They're giving up 414.7 yards per game, which ranks dead last in the NFC and second-to-last in the NFL. To put that in perspective, there's only one other NFC team that's even giving up 390 yards per game. The Seahawks are on pace to surrender 7,050 yards on the season, which seems almost impossible when you consider that only one team in NFL history has even surrendered 7,000 yards in a season and that was the 2012 Saints, who gave up an NFL-record 7,042.

Pick: Jacksonville +3

Dolphins at Bills

This one's a bit tricky. The Dolphins have come to life with a better offense as Tua Tagovailoa has taken full control with much-improved quarterback play in returning from his rib injury, perhaps motivated by the Deshaun Watson rumors. The Bills don't need to worry about QB long-term with Josh Allen and will come out laser-focused to rip a division foe after the bye, one that it shut out in the first meeting.

Pick: Bills -13.5

Panthers at Falcons

The Panthers have reached the limit with Sam Darnold and quarterback and Christian McCaffrey cannot return to lift the running and passing games until Week 9 against the Patriots at the earliest. The Falcons are finding their groove again with Matt Ryan as their offense looks like a ton of fun again with so many diverse weapons. Coach Arthur Smith looks like a keep with his organization, while counterpart Matt Rhule will struggle more with motivation on the road.

Pick: Falcons -3

Rams at Texans

The Rams took the Lions a bit lightly and Detroit did well to pull out all the stops to try to spoil things in Goff's revenge game. But the Rams tend to be more focused to exploit bad teams on the road and it's becoming increasingly harder for Houston to be competitive with a massive talent disparity. They go back to doing the work they did on the Giants in Week 6.

Pick: Rams -14.5

Bengals at Jets

The Bengals made the jump to the AFC powerhouse last week with a big road win over the Ravens. Joe Burrow is locked in as a franchise quarterback and Ja'Marr Chase is literally running (and receiving) away with rookie of the year honors. The defense is also imposing its will with key playmakers on every level, fronted by a much-improved outside-inside pass rush. The Jets will turn the offense over to 2018 fifth-rounder Mike White with 2021 first-rounder Zach Wilson on the shelf, and at this point, it can't get much worse with a spark from rookie running back Michael Carter. Cincy steps off the gas here and the Jets having some assets in pass defense helps them sneak away with a backdoor cover.

Pick: Jets +9.5

49ers at Bears

The 49ers have some positive offensive flashes with Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel but it's on Kyle Shanahan to figure out more personnel answers between players being injured and doghoused. The good news is, his team plays well on the road and he's much more organized and put-together than his offensive-minded counterpart Matt Nagy. Although this might have been hyped at one point as Trey Lance vs. Justin Fields, the team that needs to play veteran QB in this one has the edge. Jimmy Garoppolo returns to Illinois for a homecoming victory with plenty of help from the defense and running game.

Pick: 49ers -3.5

Patriots at Chargers

The Chargers will come back with a cleaner offense with Justin Herbert after the bye, but the Patriots' defense will scheme to take away the big plays and force them to be patient and grinding with their attack. The Patriots also will stay in the game with their rushing attack against a porous Chargers' run defense. Eventually, Herbert will be hard to stop with arm and legs with a massive assist from the backfield versatility of Austin Ekeler. Mac Jones will do his best to match him as a young gun, but L.A. escapes New England at the gun.

Pick: New England +5.5

Washington Football Team at Denver Broncos

Put Washington and Denver high on the list of teams that must draft a quarterback high in 2022. Fill-ins Taylor Heinicke and Teddy Bridgewater have made their teams competitive, helped each by a nice array of offensive skill players. The Broncos have a little more versatility and health on their side, plus home field and the more disciplined defense under Vic Fangio vs. what WFT has under Jack Del Rio.

Pick: WFT +3.5

Cowboys at Vikings

With both teams coming off a bye, this should be a compelling game of two complete teams at full strength. Dak Prescott needed the rest and he'll be back ready to rev up the Cowboys' explosive, borderline unstoppable offense with maybe more reinforcements. Kirk Cousins will have a healthier Dalvin Cook to lift him again for big plays to Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Prescott is more trustworthy and is attacking the weaker defense, while the Cowboys will respond with the stronger closing defense to shut the door late.

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