NFL WEEK 4 RUNDOWN

SportsBeat!

Written by Aaron Cantin

The weather is getting cooler and Thanksgiving north of the border is next weekend. These two things mean one thing to me. Prime sports season. I’ve always argued that October is the best month of the sports calendar - baseball playoffs, the heart of NFL season, Champions League, and beginning of NHL and NBA seasons. But we’re not there yet. We’re still stuck in the “summer” sports calendar. Even golf is over. Thank god for the NFL. Three weeks in and there have been many surprises, injuries, upsets and enough evidence to get a feel for what this season beholds. Today I’ll look over the NFL landscape, reality and fantasy.

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Top Upset for Week 4

I almost took Seattle here, and I took a real long look at Carolina (+5) over Dallas, with the Panthers coming off mini-bye and Dallas on a short week. Carolina's defence is no joke.

But give me Lions (+3) over Bears. Detroit had its heart ripped out Sunday by Justin Tucker's record-long, winning kick. But the Lions are playing hard, their defence looks surprisingly good and I think things are a big ol' mess there in Chicago with the quarterback situation. The Lions will get on the board for the first time this season, and we could enter another week of full-throated Bear-bashing in Chicago.

Two things I’ve changed my mind about since the start of the season

I felt like I was in the minority as someone who thought the Steelers will be playoff contenders, but I'm far less certain after three weeks. The offence looks broken, Ben Roethlisberger looks cooked and injuries have prevented the defence from being able to carry them through early-season struggles (the opener in Buffalo notwithstanding). You trust Mike Tomlin, who has never had a losing season as head coach, to keep the car out of the roadside ditch. But if you didn't know his/their history, it'd be hard to watch the Steelers so far and think they have a real shot.

I've changed my mind about Arizona. I'm starting to think the Cardinals are for real. They struck me as sort of a soft team, with the Air Raid offence and an unpredictable defence faltering down the stretch last season. But the defence is playing inspired football, and Kyler Murray looks in complete command. Defences will try to adjust to him, so late-season games should be tougher, but he looks up to the challenge. And he has talented teammates everywhere.

Biggest Injury Concern

This one’s pretty obvious. The Panthers with running back Christian McCaffrey. Their offence looks so explosive with him in the lineup. They are good without him but have a chance to be great when he's in the backfield. He just can't stay on the field for second-year coach Matt Rhule, missing 13 games last season with ankle/shoulder issues and now at least a couple of games with a hamstring injury. Luckily this isn't a long-term deal, but it's tough to count on his durability right now.

Fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 4

• Dalton Schultz, TE, Cowboys (vs. CAR). He might be an obvious one coming off a two-touchdown performance, but I doubt he was a fixture in most fantasy leagues before then, and he probably should be. Dallas coaches believe he's improving rapidly dating back to last season -- he had 63 catches, mostly while Dak Prescott was out injured -- and he and Prescott have developed chemistry. Schultz won't be a focal point every week due to Dallas' crowded group of playmakers, but more big weeks are to come.

• Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles (vs. KC). The Chiefs have allowed 160.3 rushing yards per game. Only the Chargers have allowed more. Kansas City has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to runbacks. Eagles running backs amassed a grand total of three carries in Monday night's loss to the Cowboys, which means Nick Sirianni & Co. will be hearing (and likely talking) all week about how they need to try and run the ball more. Teams tend to go run heavy against the Chiefs, who have yet to show they can really stop it. I wouldn't expect Sirianni to all of a sudden turn run heavy, but I expect Sanders to be more involved. If he hits a big play or two, it could pay off for fantasy managers.

Biggest fantasy flop for Week 4

• Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys (vs. CAR). The Panthers have allowed just 45 rushing yards per game. Alvin Kamara ran for 5 yards on eight carries against them in Week 2, and he added only 25 receiving yards on four catches. Everybody knows the Brian Burns-led Panthers front can get after quarterbacks, but they're stifling running backs so far this year, too. Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore surely knows this (or is in the process of finding it out as the week unfolds), so I'd expect a Dallas game plan similar to what we saw against the Buccaneers in Week 1, at best.

• Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens (at DEN). The Broncos' defence will be Baltimore's toughest test so far, and they can match up rookie Pat Surtain II -- who has been impressive thus far -- on tight ends, depending on the game plan. Andrews is due for his first touchdown of the season and will get it eventually. But Denver's third-ranked passing defense will be a tough challenge.