MLB, LDS AND LCS PREDICTIONS

SportsBeat!

Written by Aaron Cantin

A wild final week in baseball (in the American League at least) has left us with the final 10. Just 10 teams make the postseason, unlike the other major North American sports. Many would argue the postseason should be expanded again. I would be open to it but there are positives to smaller playoffs. For one, we’re guaranteed good baseball. Each team that has made it has a chance. At this point, you’re one more winning streak away from being champions. Other sports it's thought of as the “second season” but not baseball. The MLB playoffs have presented upsets plenty.

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We already saw the Yankees eliminated at the hands of the Red Sox and the Dodgers sneak by the Cardinals. Now we have best-of-5’s in the League Division Series. Each matchup is intriguing for its own reasons.

The Astros, Dodgers, and Giants are three of the top four favorites to win it all this October. Here are the World Series odds entering the 2021 postseason:

Dodgers: +375

Astros: +475

Rays: +650

Giants: +675

White Sox: +750

Brewers: +800

Braves: +1200

Red Sox: +1600

American League Prediction

The Rays were two wins shy of a title last season and look like a more complete club now. The Astros have two World Series trips in the last four seasons (with a championship in 2017) and plated an MLB-best 863 runs. The White Sox ranked fifth in both ERA and batting average. The Red Sox were second in slugging percentage and fifth in punchouts.

Since you're expecting a prediction, though, let's slice this field down to one.

While the best team on paper doesn't always win in baseball, I can see the cream of the crop rising in the ALDS. The Rays and Astros were a cut above the league this season, joining the Giants and Dodgers as the only team with run differentials north of plus-200. Moving forward to the ALCS, both clubs have questions in their rotations, but Houston will find a way around them.

Maybe the lineup mashes enough to overcome some short, rocky starts. Maybe Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia, and Framber Valdez erase those question marks. Maybe the bullpen perks up and does a better job of getting to Ryan Pressly. Either way, the Astros will be World Series-bound for the third time in five years.

The Rays will surely be in the ALCS to face the Astros and I would not be surprised if the Rays make this prediction look silly. They’ve quietly been the best team in the AL while taking down the hardest division in baseball with ease.

The Rays scored more runs than the Blue Jays. They don't have a Triple Crown candidate. They don't have a record-setting second baseman. They don't have four players with 100 RBIs. They led the league in strikeouts. They hit home runs with guys on base and deliver clutch hits. So this could be anybody. Nelson Cruz has the postseason pedigree, although he hasn't torn it up since coming over from the Twins, and he might even sit against some righties.

National League Prediction

Just like in the AL, there are five different, compelling options here. The Giants and Dodgers are the obvious picks for obvious reasons. The Braves are the explosive pick with power hitters throughout their lineup and all over their infield. But maybe the Brewers are simply the right pick.

Great pitching often wins in October, and Milwaukee's top of the rotation is ridiculous. Freddy Peralta had a 2.81 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 195 strikeouts in 144.1 innings, and he was only the Brewers' third-most impressive starter. Brandon Woodruff paired a 2.56 ERA with 211 strikeouts in 179.1 innings. Corbin Burnes paced the trio in ERA (2.43), WHIP (0.94), and strikeouts (234 in 167).

Is that a better trio than L.A.'s combination of Max Scherzer, Walker Buehler and Julio Urias? That might be up for debate. What isn't, though, is that the Brewers have an easier path to the World Series. As long as Milwaukee gets timely hits and doesn't see its bullpen exposed without Devin Williams (broken hand), the Brewers can finally have their playoff breakthrough and book their first World Series trip since 1982.

The Giants are similar to the Rays in the way they flew under the radar and finished with the best record in the league. Every team in baseball had a losing record this season in games in which their opponents scored the first run. The Giants were no exception and their record in those games was typical among the playoff teams. On the other hand, San Francisco lapped the field when it came to winning the games in which it drew first blood. How? Well, it didn't hurt that the Giants' bullpen led the majors in ERA and WHIP. And that's really the crux of it: If the Giants can establish an early lead, Gabe Kapler's bullpen is probably going to get the job done.

Ace Kevin Gausman hasn't been as effective in the second half (4.42 ERA, .276 average allowed) as the first (1.73 ERA, .159 average allowed), but he's the starter most likely to get on a roll and pitch deep into games with a splitter that has remained a wipeout offering (.136 average against it on the season).

As for my World Series predictions? Let’s keep those on hold and break them down once we get there.