FANTASY OUTLOOK: FIVE OVERPERFORMERS & FIVE UNDERPERFORMERS

MLB / Baseball

Written by Gus Cousins

Fantasy baseball can be an extremely frustrating experience sometimes, as I would know having accidentally auto-drafted Marcus Semien to one of my teams this year. Highly-projected players falter, and the irritation of early-round picks not living up to their hype can grow quickly. On the flip side though, there are always players that aren’t highly touted who become immensely valuable in a successful fantasy season - take Robbie Ray’s 2021 season for example. With that said, let's take a look at five players who you’d be lucky to have right now & five players who you may, unfortunately, be stuck with.

Source (Background photo): Getty Images

QUALITY ADDITIONS:

Josh Naylor: After an unfortunate ankle injury in the latter half of 2021, Naylor missed the first bit of 2022 making him an unlikely long-term pick in single-year drafts. Those who scooped him up and chucked him on the IL were lucky, as Naylor has been crushing the baseball in his return to regular playing time this year. His eligibility as a 1B/OF is a bonus, allowing him to become one of the all-around best options for a corner-infield slot if your Outfield and First Base positions are set. Naylor should be a middle-of-the-order mainstay in Cleveland, and I expect his production - while it may level off at a certain point - to be well worth pursuing in a trade.

Brandon Drury: Amidst a really bad team, Brandon Drury has been a shining star - both in the real world and in fantasy baseball. On Fantrax, he was one of the biggest increases in rostering last week at a whopping 8.9% hike. The Reds have allowed him to become an everyday player - a significant reason as to why he’s been so valuable thus far - and he’s shined in the opportunity. Drury is well on his way to surpassing career highs in home runs and RBIs, as he currently sits at 7 and 22 (his career highs were 16 homers in 2016 and 63 RBIs in 2017). His strikeout numbers are manageable, as he’s settled in nicely to batting in Cincy’s two-hole. I wouldn’t trade an arm and a leg for him, but he may still be seen as undervalued and can be scooped up for a good cost.

Ben Gamel: Ah yes, noted Pittsburgh sensation Benjamin Joseph Gamel and his lovely beard. April be damned, Gamel has heated up in the month of May and is contributing as a solid fifth/fill-in Outfielder. In eleven May games, only twice has Gamel not registered a hit, while registering two or more hits in seven. He’s not a massive run producer, but his commitment to contact (only 21 strikeouts on the year) has boosted his value in recent weeks. Likewise, with Brandon Drury, Gamel is contributing as much as he can while playing for a beleaguered Pittsburgh team. Long-term, I doubt Gamel will keep the value but for now, he’s certainly become noteworthy, especially in deep and expanded-roster leagues.

Merrill Kelly: Going into the 2022 season, I’m not entirely sure that most people would know who Merrill Kelly is. In fact, I’d bet good money that people didn’t. It doesn’t matter though, as Kelly has cemented himself as one of the early-season success stories alongside rotation mate Zac Gallen. Pre-Arizona, Kelly pitched four years in Korea - amassing enough success that the Diamondbacks took a chance on him. Seven starts into his 2022 campaign, his ability to work deeper into games on an effective pitch count (and, obviously, more quality starts) have significantly improved his fantasy value. Kelly hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any start thus far and was one out away from a complete game against Colorado. On top of that, he’s given up just one home run - a significant decline from the six he allowed over his first seven starts last year. Arizona’s stayed afloat early on this season, and anyone who acquired Kelly through a late-round pick or the Waiver Wire has been - and should continue to be - golden.

Chad Kuhl: Much like the aforementioned Merrill Kelly, Rockies fans likely weren’t overly impressed with seeing Kuhl’s name in the starting rotation. With the exception of his most recent start against the Giants (in which he lasted only 4 ⅔ innings, giving up five runs), Kuhl has been sneaky dominant to begin his year. Some of that falls on who he’s faced - Texas, Philly, Detroit, Cincinnati, Arizona, and San Francisco - but a large chunk of his success is due to his ability to produce soft contact. Besides his game against the Giants, Kuhl had only allowed more than three hits, once. He doesn’t strike many people out, but all the indications suggest that he’s turned into a more consistent pitcher than the Kuhl we’ve seen during his time with the Pirates. Ironically, his highest strikeout game was in his worst start - he struck out eight Giants his last time out, while not surpassing five in any start prior. His ability to work later into games has helped his fantasy status, but the limiting of damaging hits allowed has skyrocketed his fantasy stock from a fringe, emergency start.

SUBSTANTIAL LIABILITIES:

Jesus Sanchez: If you’re in a dynasty league, send him down. If you’re in a one-year league, drop him. Simple as that. Sanchez had a very good April, followed by a 3-for-38 May (hitting .079), and is now only slightly above the Mendoza Line. Sitting at three homers this far into the season is NOT going to cut it for a fantasy Outfielder, as there are plenty of week-to-week fillers who project better than Sanchez. Years from now, I can absolutely see Sanchez being a large part of Miami’s offense - but not right now. Holding up a roster spot for him isn’t worth it, and you could always keep an eye on him if he heats up again down the road.

Joc Pederson: Pederson is the only one on this list who is actually, for now, doing somewhat well. He had quite a month of April, boasting a .353 average and six homers - so why, Gus, are you saying to get rid of him? Here’s why: it was not, is not, and never will be remotely sustainable for someone who’s the type of hitter Pederson is. As fantastically hot as his first month was, take a look at his May: 1-for-25 (.040 average), three walks, seven strikeouts - ice cold. Pederson is as streaky as they come, and with that comes high highs and low lows. Next time he gets on a hot streak, as he inevitably will, I’d try and ship him out for a more consistent player or two at whichever position you might need.

Trevor Story: While Marcus Semien was shown mercy by not being on this list, Trevor Story is not that lucky. One bomb in 26 games thus far for his new team is nothing short of an abomination, especially when playing a hitter-friendly park like Fenway. Boston has had a lackluster start to their season, and their big Free Agency signing has a lot to do with it. Hopefully, some of the weight he’s been carrying is lifted now that he hit his first of the year, but the fact still remains that his offensive pace is miles away from what it was in Colorado. The story has four and a half months to get back on track, but the projected early-round pick has not lived up to anyone’s expectations so far. Similar to Matt Chapman, who I’ll talk about below, I’d either shove Story on the bench in the meantime or see if there are any Boston fans willing to overpay in a trade.

Jurickson Profar: Once a hotshot Texas Rangers prospect, Profar has never really been able to get it together. The tools are there, but as has been shown this season he is prone to really, really cold streaks. Fantasy-wise, he provides little value. His multi-positional status is a plus, sure, but he isn’t generating nearly enough to justify him being in your lineup every single day. He still sits at 73% rostered on Fantrax but has fallen 7.2% over just this last week. During the first half of April, he was useful, but now he’s a liability and should be dropped (or traded, if you can find someone who believes in him).

Matt Chapman: Matt Chapman is a good player. Matt Chapman might even be a great player. Right now though, Matt Chapman is having the worst offensive season of his career - and his fantasy owners are paying a steep price for it. Although still hovering around the 95-97% rostered mark, he hasn’t contributed much outside of the occasional home run. Everyone knows the player he can be, and by no means am I saying he can’t get back to that level of play this season - but shopping him around might not be the worst idea. Yes, trading any player while they’re at a low point is going to significantly diminish their value - and, knock on wood, this is the lowest it gets for Chappy - however, there are bound to be those who still see the upside in him. Don’t trade him for nothing, but if your bench is full and there are filler options out there then make the move.