ENGLAND V.S. ITALY

SportsBeat!

Written by Aaron Cantin

Well, there you have it. England vs Italy finals. Both have taken very different paths to get here and were pushed to extra time in the semi-finals. We could very well be talking about a Spain vs Denmark finals right now (Spain especially). But we’re not. The fact of the matter is both England and Italy fully deserve to be playing the final match of Euro 2020. Before we dive into the betting odds and predictions, let's look at how both teams reached the finals.

Source: Eurosport | Photo from Pool via REUTERS

Spain vs Italy

Three years after Italy watched the World Cup from home, missing out on that global showcase for the first time in 60 years, the Azzurri have made a redemptive run back to a major tournament final. After Spain dominated possession in the first half, Federico Chiesa scored on a counterattack to give Italy the lead in the 60th minute. But Álvaro Morata came off the bench to equalize for Spain in the 80th, and neither team found the breakthrough over 30 minutes of extra time.

After the shootout opened with goalkeeper Unai Simón denying Italy’s Manuel Locatelli and Spain’s Dani Olmo skying his effort over the goal, both teams’ shooters were on target until Donnarumma lunged to his left to deny Morata in the fourth round. That set the stage for Jorginho, a Champions League winner with Chelsea this past season; he caught Simón leaning to his right and coolly tucked his penalty in the opposite corner to set off the Italian celebration.

The match was a clash of powerhouses, with the nations boasting four European titles and five World Cup crowns between them. Spain’s semifinal run seemingly marked a return to form for a nation that won three straight major titles from 2008 to 2012, then crashed out early at the 2014 and 2018 World Cups and Euro 2016, where it lost to Italy in the Round of 16. But the Spaniards only won one game in the Euro 2020 group stage, then needed extra time to oust Croatia in the round of 16 and a shootout to defeat 10-man Switzerland in the quarterfinals. Spain asserted itself in the first half, controlling 65 percent of the possession and outshooting Italy 5-1. Still, it was Italy who found the back of the net first and really, looked more dangerous going forward when they did. The mindset heading into this match for the Italians played a crucial factor. If they would have entered the match expecting to dominate possession and pace of play they would have grown frustrated and made mistakes. Once the game went to penalties, you really felt Italy was going to move on.

England vs Denmark

As a neutral spectator, I would have loved to see Denmark make it to the finals. And they nearly did. Was that really a penalty in extra-time? Was Raheem Sterling not falling down before the defender nudged him? I guess none of that matters anymore. What matters is that England has made it to the grand stage for the first time since 1966. Take that in. Even more shocking, this is England’s first finals in the European Cup ever! That was bound to change eventually and now is the time. The actual match yesterday was great too.

Harry Kane's 104th-minute goal sent Wembley into a frenzy as England beat Denmark 2-1 in extra time to reach the final of Euro 2020 and set up a date with Italy in London on Sunday. The Danes got on the board first with one of the prettiest goals of the tournament. In the 28th minute, Denmark was awarded a free-kick when Luke Shaw took down Andreas Christensen. From about 25 yards out, Mikkel Damsgaard curled a beautiful effort over the England wall and past an outstretched Jordan Pickford, who got a fingertip on the shot, but not enough to stop Denmark from going up 1-0. It was the first goal of Euro 2020 scored on a direct free-kick and the first conceded by England, ending a 691-minute clean-sheet streak.

England looked for an equalizer shortly thereafter, but Kasper Schmeichel, who was brilliant when called upon, had other ideas. In the 38th, Harry Kane played in Raheem Sterling alone, but his hard strike was brilliantly stopped by the Leicester City goalkeeper. A minute later, though, he wouldn't be so lucky. Kane found Bukayo Saka streaking down the right side. Spotting Sterling making a run, Saka's low cross was turned into his own net by Denmark captain Simon Kjaer before Sterling could tap in and England was level at 1-1. It was the 11th own goal of Euro 2020. Schmeichel was at his best again in the 55th. Off of a free-kick, a Harry Maguire header seemed destined for goal, but it was parried away by his former club teammate Schmeichel with a diving save.

England controlled the tempo late and enjoyed a majority of possession, but couldn't trouble Schmeichel or find a winner in regular time.

Extra time began much in the same way that the match ended with one-way traffic towards the Denmark goal. Finally, in the 103rd minute, England was able to do something with all of its possession. As Sterling made a run into the area, he was adjudged to have been clipped by Joakim Maehle. VAR confirmed the decision, although I still have major doubts. Kane stepped up to take the penalty and his low drive was stopped by a diving Schmeichel, but Kane was the first to pounce on the rebound and beat the Danish goalkeeper for the goal that put England in the Euro 2020 final.

England vs Italy

Sunday, July 11th, 3:00 P.M.

Wembley Stadium, England

One thing that cannot be overlooked is the location. That’s right, England will be playing in front of a home crowd when they have the opportunity to win their first major trophy in 55 years.

Gareth Southgate’s side has grown into the tournament, gathering momentum with convincing wins over Germany, Ukraine, and Denmark en route to the final.

As for Italy, they came into the competition as somewhat of a dark horse but have seriously impressed, knocking out Austria as well as European heavyweights Belgium and Spain.

History? Plenty. England has faced Italy no less than 27 times, winning eight, drawing eight, and losing 11. Italy has come up trumps against England in the last two major tournaments, most recently in the 2014 World cup opening game when Italy won 2-1 and in the quarter-finals of Euro 2012, beating the Three Lions 4-2 on penalties.

As for Sunday’s match, well this one is extremely difficult to call. England will be considered the favorite but that's because someone needs to be labeled it. Italy will be just fine with that. England opened as slight favorites, at +160 to win in 90 minutes, with Italy coming in at +180. Hardly any margin between the two. A tie after 90 minutes (+210) is where I would put my money, although I don't fancy this bet. From a neutral standpoint, I’m concerned about how enjoyable this game will be to watch. Both teams, England especially have played defensively and the two sides may take time to get comfortable going forward. I see England dominating most of the possession but not taking any risks. If you can find a bet for a scoreless first half take it.

In fact, if you’re looking for a long shot, I can really see this game finishing 0-0 after 90 minutes. I'm confident this game will go to extra time, I’d be willing to put my own money on that. After that is when it gets interesting. Judging by history, England will want to avoid a penalty shoot-out at all costs. Penalties have not been kind to the Three Lions. Italy meanwhile, will begin to play for penalties in extra time. If you’re looking to cover the board, place a small wager on Italy winning in penalties and England winning in extra time. Either one will pay off substantially.

As for my prediction, well, this feels like an Italian game to win. They love being the underdog in this sort of situation. Playing at Wembley Stadium may in fact work against England especially if they are scored against. The players could begin to feel the pressure of the country just outside the stadium and try to force things. However, Italy could very well be watching this game from the couch. They narrowly escaped the semi-finals. England has looked extremely good the entire tournament. You really feel England is the best team in the tournament this year. Ultimately, I see this game going to extra-time with Harry Kane finding the back of the net early in extra time. If this game does go to penalties though, you can be sure as rain Italy will be celebrating afterward.

Man, what a great tournament.