CHAMPIONS LEAGUE SEMI-FINALS SECOND LEG BREAKDOWN

UEFA / Soccer

Written by Aaron Cantin

The 2022 Champions League title remains open with Manchester City, Real Madrid, Liverpool, and Villarreal after the first leg of semifinal action.

Manchester City looked dominant at times in Tuesday's match, but the squad could only manage a 4-3 win over Real during its home fixture at Etihad Stadium.

Source (Background Photo): UEFA

In Wednesday's match, Liverpool earned a 2-0 win against Villarreal at Anfield. Liverpool will look to close things out in the second leg Tuesday, while Manchester City and Real Madrid will end their tie the following day. Oddsmakers still see a lot of possibilities with just three matches remaining in the competition.

Odds to Win Title

Liverpool: -110

Manchester City: +120

Real Madrid: +1000

Villarreal: +5000

Villarreal vs Liverpool (0-2)

Villarreal vs Liverpool (0-2)

After last Wednesday night’s first leg at Anfield, Liverpool is firmly in control of this tie. Villarreal had just one shot all night and, in truth, Jürgen Klopp’s side could’ve won by more, but 2-0 could still prove to be an unassailable lead. Liverpool could end the season with an unprecedented quadruple, given that the Carabao Cup is already in the bag.

Liverpool hasn’t lost any game by two or more goals for 13 months, since a 3-1 defeat to Real Madrid in Valdebebas in last season’s quarterfinals. If they preserve that record, they’ll be heading to Paris for this season’s final, the city where they beat Real Madrid to win a third European Cup in 1981.

But don’t count out Villarreal just yet as they’ve already upset the odds just to get this far. El Submarino Amarillo saw off Juventus in the last 16 before ousting Bayern in the quarters, winning 3-0 in Turin before an equally memorable 1-1 draw in Munich. So, last season’s Europa League winners are competing in their first Champions League semi-final since bowing out to Arsenal at this stage in 2006.

Prediction

Villarreal will be a much stiffer competition at home than what we saw at Anfield last week. The Spanish side went into the match hoping to keep the tie within one goal. They failed to do that which is why I ultimately see Liverpool advancing to the finals, but it will not be easy for the Reds. I think Villarreal will find the back of the net in this one so look for both teams to score. A scoreline of 1-1 is what I am envisioning.

Real Madrid vs Manchester City (3-4)

If sanity were to have prevailed in a Champions League knockout tie involving Real Madrid this season they would have been out of the competition. Every one of Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea, and even a victorious City have been baffled at how the score looks quite how it does when the final whistle blows.

Pep Guardiola’s City had plenty of chances to put the series away but instead, Madrid found a way to fight back, and it goes into Wednesday’s second leg at the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium only a goal down.

Across the knockout stages of this competition, Madrid have allowed the most xG, has the third-worst xG difference, and has the sixth-worst xG difference per game. They also have Karim Benzema. He is this team writ large. Even when they are struggling, the world's best player produces a moment of magic to turn the game. They relish games that get stretched and play like the apex version of Europe's most successful team when there is chaos in the air.

Last Tuesday the visitors had no answer for City's sustained possession play but put Fernandinho in front of Vinicius Junior and they could find a devastating moment.

If City is going to win this tie, they won't do so by embracing the chaos, but by playing the game on their terms, something which they clearly have the quality to do.

Prediction

I am still back-and-forth on this one. That is what makes it such a great tie and the most compelling to date for this year’s Champions League. On one side I believe City will be as dominant as in the first leg without allowing three goals. On the other hand, manager Pep Guardiola has a history of overthinking big matches like this seemingly imploding on his own.

From Real Madrid’s perspective, they should have been eliminated in each knockout stage so far and you feel their time has come. However, they remain just one goal down meaning a victory at home in any fashion sends this fixture to extra-time if not the finals.

Ultimately, I can certainly see Real Madrid fighting and perhaps taking the lead late forcing extra time and maybe even penalties. It won’t be a seven-goal thriller like the first leg, but I certainly see both teams scoring. Real Madrid will score late, taking a 2-1 lead but City will take control after the 90 minutes and one or two in the net ending Real Madrid’s improbable run for another Champions League trophy.