CHAMPIONS LEAGUE QUARTER FINALS SECOND LEG PREVIEW

UEFA / Soccer

Written by Aaron Cantin

Heading into the final leg of the quarter-finals two English sides are in a good spot, while one is not. One Spanish side is in a good spot, one is not, and one wishes the Champions League quarter-finals were a single leg. Today we see Bayern host Villareal and Chelsea travel to Madrid to battle Real Madrid. Tomorrow we wrap it up with underdogs Benfica looking for a result at Liverpool and City looking to wrap things up against Atletico Madrid.

Source (Background Photo): Getty Images

Bayern Munich (0-1) Villarreal

Chances of advancing: Bayern Munich 66.3%, Villarreal 33.7%

It’s the tie that feels the least decided, and the numbers back that up with Villarreal having a one-in-three chance of surviving a seemingly inevitable barrage in Munich. But even typing that feels a little fraudulent because it’s also the tie in which you wonder if the visiting one-goal leaders witnessed what happened to RB Salzburg. Granted, the last 16 matchup between Salzburg and Bayern was 1-1 after the away leg in Austria, but it ended 8-2, Robert Lewandowski had bagged a hat-trick by the 23rd minute of the second leg, and it was 4-0 by the 31st.

But Villarreal and Salzburg are not the same. Last week before the first leg, we discussed shot quality. Villarreal’s xG per shot was the highest in the competition. It turns out they can also be fantastic in limiting the quality of the individual chances of their opponents. That was particularly true against Bayern in the first leg. Bayern have been dominant, but they haven’t exactly had a difficult path to this point. In group, recall, it was a then-directionless Barcelona side, Benfica and Dynamo Kyiv. The Round of 16 was against a team that had never been to that stage. Even if they get by Villarreal, might that lack of competition domestically and thus far in UCL catch up with them?

Prediction: Bayern 2 - 2 Villarreal - Villarreal advance 3-2 on aggregate

Real Madrid (3-1) Chelsea

Chances of advancing: Real Madrid 87.3%, Chelsea 12.7%

Real Madrid had a much different approach entering their last 16 tie with Paris Saint-Germain. It appeared to be an all-or-nothing approach in terms of whether Real might choose to be aggressive with Chelsea the way they were in the second leg of the last 16. Turns out Carlo Ancelotti got the best of both worlds – in part thanks to a terrible Chelsea error and in part thanks to the luxury of being 2-0 up by the 24th minute. As may have been expected at Stamford Bridge, Los Blancos hardly pressed, with a match week-low five pressed sequences (Bayern had 29, Liverpool 26), but they did manage three high turnovers from that and did (technically) score from that press. They’re now in a situation where they absolutely don’t have to, but they also know very well 3-1 is far from untouchable – that’s why they’re here after overcoming a two-goal deficit to PSG, and they did it with far less than 90 minutes to make it up.

There’s pressing to score, which Real have done very well with four such goals in nine UCL matches, and then there’s pressing to just make life miserable and nervy for your opponents and, sure, scoring would be nice but isn’t absolutely imperative.

Prediction: Real Madrid 1 - 2 Chelsea - Real Madrid advance 4-3 on aggregate

Atlético Madrid (0-1) Manchester City

Chances of advancing: Atlético Madrid 11.7%, Manchester City 88.3%

These two sides are polar opposite and it showed in the first leg. After watching the first leg, you can argue both sides were successful at their gameplean. City had 11 high turnovers on 16 pressed sequences. Those aren’t massive numbers, but they do suggest a blueprint of sorts. None of those resulted in shots, but they didn’t need to. It had the effect of pinning Atlético back and essentially making it impossible for them to attack even if they’d thought it wise, which, to be fair, they almost certainly didn’t. I will make the argument that Atletico is lucky to be here. Recall Atlético have been up against it not just in the knockout stages but back on Match day 6 of group stage when they beat Porto 3-1 away. That required a couple of Porto reds and a couple of 90+ minute goals. Whatever works I suppose. Ultimately this was always going to be the end of the line for Atletico. Despite it only being one-nil I don’t see a way back into the match for Atleti barring a major collapse by City getting into card trouble or putting the ball in their own net several times.

Prediction: Atletico 1 - 2 Manchester City - City advance 3-1 on aggregate

Liverpool (3-1) Benfica

Chances of advancing: Liverpool 98.8%, Benfica 1.2%

This isn’t going to be complicated: It doesn’t seem like Benfica can play with Liverpool. More specifically, it doesn’t seem like Benfica can defend Liverpool, and we’re not basing this just on 90 minutes against Liverpool. Benfica were shredded by Bayern in the group stage to the tune of 8.08 expected goals in two matches, and that’s just about what we saw from the Reds last week (3.86). Nélson Veríssimo’s team’s 2.21 xG against per match is more in line with Malmö and Sheriff Tiraspol than it is with anyone left in the competition. If that changes drastically and Benfica are able to win by at least two goals and advance, I will eat my dog’s breakfast.

I don’t see that happening especially considering the Portuguese side travels to Liverpool. Only one team has been in better form this season in Europe and they drew 2-2 over the weekend (Liverpool Manchester CIty tied 2-2 on Sunday). I see Liverpool striking quickly putting the match out of reach and enjoying the rest of the time with their fans in the stadium. Klopp will be thrilled.

Prediction: Liverpool 3 - 0 Benfica - Liverpool advance 6-1 on aggregate