CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL: LIVERPOOL VS REAL MADRID

UEFA / Soccer

Written by Aaron Cantin

On Saturday, May 28th Liverpool will face Real Madrid in the 2022 Champions League final. Months of hard work, determination, and improbable results will come down to one match — it is winner takes all. After Liverpool’s comeback against Villarreal and Real Madrid’s stunning resurgence against Manchester City, we can only hope the final has the same levels of drama as the semi-finals just gone.

The finals will take place in the Stade de France in Paris. The game was originally scheduled for Zenit Saint Petersburg’s Gazprom Arena but after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, UEFA wisely decided in February to move to the final. The 80,000-seater stadium hosted the Champions League final in 2000 and 2006, as well as the finals of Euro 2016 and the 1998 World Cup.

Before predictions let’s look back at how each squad earned its spot on the big stage.

Source (Background Photo): UEFA

LIVERPOOL

Winning all six of their group matches earmarked Liverpool as an early favourite for the Champions League title.

They were then paired with Inter Milan in the last-16, where a 2-0 win at San Siro in the first leg saw them through despite a 1-0 defeat at Anfield — the only match Jurgen Klopp’s side has lost in this season’s competition.

Liverpool then dismantled Benfica 3-1 in Lisbon in the first leg of their quarter-final, which was followed by a 3-3 home draw, made to look more uncomfortable than it was in reality due to two late goals from the Portuguese side.

Unai Emery’s Villarreal awaited Liverpool in the semi-finals, a tie which appeared foregone after an impressive 2-0 home victory in the first leg. Two first-half goals from Villarreal in the return fixture then jolted Liverpool into life, who secured their place in the final with three goals of their own after the break.

REAL MADRID

Real Madrid’s Champions League journey at the Santiago Bernabeu began in an embarrassing fashion as they lost 2-1 at home to Moldovan champions FC Sheriff in their second group match, a result that stunned the competition.

That seemed to spur Ancelotti’s side on, however, as they won all their remaining group games to finish top of Group D — only to then be drawn against Paris Saint-Germain in a heavyweight round of 16 ties.

Real Madrid lost the first leg in Paris 1-0 and then conceded just before half-time in the return fixture at the Bernabeu. Just as it looked as though they were down and out, a sensational second-half hat-trick from captain Karim Benzema secured a place in the quarterfinals.

There, they met Chelsea, who had defeated them in the semi-finals of last season’s competition. Madrid looked to have vanquished those demons, having won 3-1 in the first leg in west London.

Ancelotti’s side was stunned at the Bernabeu, though, as Chelsea went 3-0 up with 15 minutes left to play. Madrid then turned the tie on its head, with a Rodrygo volley sending the game to extra time and Benzema scoring the winner shortly after the restart.

That set up the semi-final against Manchester City — a tie that will be remembered as an all-time Champions League classic for the drama that ensued over the two legs.

City won 4-3 at the Etihad and then went 1-0 up late on in the second leg, but two late goals from Rodrygo levelled the tie at 5-5 on aggregate. Once again, Benzema was the hero for Real Madrid, scoring from the spot in extra time.

Recent history between Liverpool and Real Madrid

These sides met in the 2018 Champions League final, a game which saw Liverpool talisman Mohamed Salah taken off injured in the first half after a challenge from Real Madrid captain Sergio Ramos. Liverpool was unhappy about the strength of that challenge and went on to lose the game 3-1.

They then came up against each other in last season’s quarterfinals, with Madrid winning the first leg 3-1 at home, followed by a goalless draw at Anfield.

MATCHDAY

The kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET. Liverpool enters as the +105 favorite on the 90-minute money line with Real Madrid the +225 underdog. A draw is priced at +275 and the over-under for total goals scored is set at 2.5.

Why you should back Liverpool

The Reds fell short of a historic quadruple, but they made a valiant run and will be fired up to finish off a huge win here. They won the 2019 UCL title and then won the league the following year, so they will be looking for a repeat of that scenario.

Liverpool's only loss this calendar year was a 1-0 setback in the second leg of its Round of 16 ties with Inter Milan, a match the Reds didn't need to win. They are 26-7-1 in all competitions in 2022, outscoring opponents 72-22. The attack led by Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane is lethal, and Real Madrid has allowed a goal in seven of its past 10.

The Reds have scored 20 goals in their past 10 games, and Salah tied for the Premier League lead with 23 goals and had a league-best 13 assists. He has scored eight times in Champions League play. Mane has five goals in the tournament and 23 overall, while Diogo Jota has 21 in all competitions. Goalkeeper Alisson is one of the world's best and has 27 clean sheets in 53 matches overall, while 6-foot-5 defender Virgil Van Djik is an imposing presence in front of him.

Why you should back Real Madrid

Los Blancos have been pushed to the brink several times in the Champions League, but they just keep surviving. Karim Benzema is a big reason why. The 34-year-old Frenchman has scored 10 goals in Real's last five UCL matches and has 15 in the 11 games. He led La Liga with 27 goals, and he forms a potent combination with Vinicius Junior, who has 21 goals in all competitions. The duo has combined for 30 assists in the team's 51 games, and star midfielder Luka Modric also keeps the top scorers fed. The 36-year-old has 12 assists in 44 games.

Modric is part of a midfield that is tough to top, as he teams with Toni Kroos and Casemiro. The German veteran Kroos helps Modric run the attack, while Casemiro is one of the best defensive midfielders in the world. Real is expecting David Alaba, who is one of the top defenders of his generation, to return to anchor the backline. His leadership and experience could make a critical difference in a game of this magnitude.

PREDICTIONS

This is as tough as it gets to predict. First look you take Liverpool without question. Dig a bit deeper and it seems inevitable Real Madrid will raise the trophy once again. Los Blancos have won the Champions League a record 10 times and none of those 10 titles would be as impressive as this one considering the sides they had to overcome.

Firstly, I certainly see both teams’ scoring. Particularly Mo Salah for the Red’s and Karim Benzema for Madrid. I would feel more confident placing money on Salah scoring. For this reason, I would take the over (2.5 goals) during regulation.

Ultimately, I think the English side will overcome Madrid and raise the trophy. I expect Liverpool to dominate possession, creating numerous chances with Madrid just holding on before half-time. The second half with frustrate Liverpool as they fail to put the game away and pay the price. Real Madrid will do what they have done all tournament, taking advantage of changes in the second half. A late goal from Rodrygo will send this one to extra-time tied at two.

Madrid will get tired in extra time and a late sub from Jurgen Klopp will be the difference. Diogo Jota will come on after 100 minutes and be the difference-maker.

In conclusion, I am taking over 2.5 goals, draw after regulation, and Liverpool to lift the trophy.