CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL BETTING GUIDE

SportsBeat!

Written by Aaron Cantin

The World's largest annual tournament is coming to an end this weekend as domestic foes Manchester City and Chelsea FC will square off Saturday afternoon at the Estádio do Dragão in Portugal. This is only the third all-English final in the history of the competition.

Chelsea appeared in the first, losing to Manchester United on penalties on an unforgettable night in Moscow in 2008. The other occasion was two years ago in Madrid, where Liverpool beat Tottenham Hotspur. Saturday marks City's first appearance in the final and will be the third for Chelsea, who beat Bayern Munich in a penalty shoot-out on their home ground in 2012 to become European champions. Let's get into it.

Photo from UEFA

Firstly, I do not expect a high-scoring match. Both teams have the talent and ability going forward, but neither squad, specifically Chelsea, play with an attacking mindset. Manchester City will control most of the possession as they have nearly every match this season, and Chelsea will be fine with that. Since Thomas Tuchel took over late in 2020, Chelsea has been nearly impossible to score against. The blues climbed the English premier league table in 2021, earning Champions League football next season and allowing the second least amount of goals in the process.

Goals Over/Under (2.5) - Under -150

In last year's final, there were eight yellow cards – four for each side – and Saturday's referee Antonio Lahoz is not shy about reaching for his pocket. He has shown 41 yellow cards and two reds in his last seven matches in all competitions, and in his last five Champions League fixtures, he has brandished 25 yellows. In the FA Cup semi-final between the teams just weeks ago, there were five yellow cards shown, and I expect a similar number on Saturday.

Number of Cards (4.5) - Over +110

Despite Manchester City dominating the premier league, the only bumps in an otherwise silky smooth season have come at the hands of Chelsea. This will be the third match between the teams in six weeks, with Chelsea winning both in the Thomas Tuchel era. The Blues followed their 1-0 victory in the FA Cup semi-final in mid-April with a 2-1 win at the Etihad Stadium in the Premier League this month.

Although the side from London is the only squad this year to find success against City, they struggled to finish the season, most notably losing in the FA Cup Final to Leicester City 1-0. Barring a mental breakdown from a defender or a handball resulting in a penalty shot, I see both teams feeling each other out in the first half without any real sense of urgency to find the goal.

In fact, I don't see both teams scoring in this game after 90 minutes. Chelsea will be content with going to extra-time and trying their luck in penalties. City will eventually put under pressure, but if they have to pay an extra thirty minutes to find a goal, they will do that.

Both Teams to Score: No -134

Long Shot Bet

Both Chelsea's previous appearances in the Champions League final have been decided on penalty shoot-outs. In 2008, John Terry's famous miss-handed Manchester United a lifeline they grasped, while in 2012, Didier Drogba had the final word as they beat Bayern to lift the trophy.

Two years ago, Chelsea faced City in a Carabao Cup final that also went to penalties. That match was won by City. Who wins in a penalty shoot-out is a toss-up but betting on the game to get to penalties may be the best value bet you can find on the market.

Game Decided After Penalties - YES+500

Lastly, the match-winner. Although City dominates the headlines and is clearly the team to beat, you would be hard-pressed to find a City fan feeling overly confident heading into Saturday. Tuchel has marked himself out as something of a specialist against other top managers in his career. Add that with City's inability to claim their first Champions League trophy, and it is easy to convince yourself of an upset. I've been against City since the quarter-finals, and though it may be a couple of stops too late, I'm finally hopping onboard.

The final match of the 2020–21 UEFA Champions League | Photo from The Vaultz News

A safe bet would be on City to lift the trophy at -225, considering Chelsea's strategy to stay back and prevent any and all scoring opportunities. Still, I'm confident enough to back City scoring before that. City to win in Extra Time is currently at +800, which is tempting, but a bit too specific for my blood.

As mentioned earlier, I don't expect many scoring opportunities (or goals) in the first half, and I don't see Chelsea generating many scoring opportunities throughout the match. 90 minutes should be enough for City to tire the blues defence causing mistakes in the second half, and I'm willing to bet on it.

Half Time/Full-Time result: Draw - Man City +350

In a couple of weeks, the UEFA Euro Cup will be beginning, and you know I will be here to break it all down. Stay lucky!