CFL WEEK FOUR PROJECTIONS

CFL / Football

Written by Joel Lefevre

It’s East versus West as we head into week four of the 2022 CFL regular season with some intriguing matchups beginning on Thursday in the nation’s capital.

Three teams are still unbeaten in the early going, two of which come as no surprise being the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Calgary Stampeders, while the other one, the BC Lions, have been quite the story given how they have lit up their opponents thus far.

At least one of the three winless teams is likely to get that monkey off their back this week, as the Edmonton Elks take on the Hamilton Tiger-Cats on Canada Day.

Source (Background Photo/s): The Canadian Press

Here is a look at what to expect in the fourth week of the CFL season.

BC Lions at Ottawa Redblacks

Rick Campbell’s Lions have been the talk of the league, blowing away their competition to this point.

In just two games, they have already put up 103 points, crushing the Elks in their opener (59-15), while a week off didn’t seem to affect their timing as they laid a beatdown on the Toronto Argonauts, winning handsomely once again (44-3).

Many were unsure what rookie quarterback Nathan Rourke would bring to the table in his first season as the starter.

Still, the Victoria native seems to be handling the pressure of pro football just fine, setting the league record for passing yards in a game by a Canadian QB last week, throwing for 436 yards against the Argos, eclipsing the previous mark held by Gerry Dattilio in 1981.

With the offensive outbursts that they have shown you would understand how many might forget that BC has only allowed one touchdown, conceding the fewest points in the league so far (18), while also looking sharp in the secondary, with six interceptions.

Paul LaPolice is eager to get back to work with his Redblacks coming off a bye week, in search of their first win of the season.

While he has not provided the same jaw-dropping numbers as Rourke, Jeremiah Masoli has put together a pair of solid outings in Ottawa.

The former Ti-Cats pivot has thrown for 711 yards in his two games behind centre, losing twice to the defending Grey Cup champions by a touchdown or less.

Despite the 0-2 start, this Redblacks team looks a lot more competent in all three facets of the game compared to the club which ended 2021 with a 3-11 record.

They have moved the ball effectively this season, but they need to find a way to turn these drives into touchdowns, with only one major score so far.

Prediction- BC Lions 24-10 Ottawa Redblacks

You would be inclined to predict a shootout when you look at the offensive talent on both sides of the ball.

However, these teams are underrated defensively, and we expect to see some determined units welcoming the challenge of shutting down the many dynamic weapons on offense.

BC will have the edge because of its big-play capability while being able to consistently put the ball into the end zone with relative ease.

Edmonton Elks at Hamilton Tiger-Cats

As our nation turns 155 years old on Saturday, the Edmonton Elks hope their gradual growth earns them their first victory of the year.

Chris Jones’ team has looked a lot more competitive since being trounced by the Lions in their first encounter of 2022.

Nick Arbuckle is still adjusting to life as the starting quarterback and is showing some solid early chemistry with his veteran receivers like Emmanuel Arceneaux and Kenny Lawler, though he has yet to play mistake-free football.

The Elks have struggled to contain the run, allowing an average of six yards per carry, the highest in the CFL, conceding 487 yards on the ground after only three games.

Probably the biggest disappointment after three weeks in this CFL campaign has to be the Hamilton Tiger-Cats, who no one would have expected to be dead last in the East Division.

Orlando Steinauer has seen his club show flashes of their capabilities, though they have not been able to put it all together for 60 minutes.

Dane Evans has completed 65.3 percent of his throws but has made some poor decisions that have cost his team, tossing six interceptions compared to four touchdowns.

Hamilton has allowed a CFL-low 5.5 yards per play this season, although their ground game has struggled, with a league-worst 44 rushing yards.

Prediction- Edmonton Elks 17-20 Hamilton Tiger-Cats

The only three wins for the Elks in 2021 came on the road, but we don’t believe their first victory is in the cards on Friday.

Hamilton seems a little more cohesive, despite a slow start, and they do not allow as many big plays as Edmonton.

Montreal Alouettes at Saskatchewan Roughriders

After a pair of heartbreaking defeats in their opening two games, Khari Jones saw his Alouettes finally break through last week, jumping out to a 13-0 lead after the first quarter against Saskatchewan, and cruising to a comfortable 37-13 triumph.

Trevor Harris has looked like his old self, coming in to replace Vernon Adams, throwing for 532 yards in his last two outings.

Field position and momentum can be a big game-changer in this league, and the Als won both of those battles a week ago, as Chandler Worthy returned the opening kickoff versus the Riders to the house to set the tone for the rest of that game.

Montreal is tied for second in the league when it comes to interceptions with five, as their tight coverage and aggressive man-marking have come through numerous times.

Last week was an unusually poor performance for the Riders all around, as Cody Fajardo threw a pair of picks, while their running game failed to win the battle at the line of scrimmage, as Frankie Hickson had only six carries for 27 yards.

Injuries have started to pile up for Craig Dickenson’s team after Shaq Evans fractured his ankle in the loss to the Als in a game where the Riders were missing starting centre, Dan Clark.

Their start against Montreal last Thursday was unexpected as they allowed 13 points in the opening quarter, three more than they had given up in the opening half of their first two games combined.

Saskatchewan has managed to save their best for last, scoring 39 points in the fourth quarter, so if they can keep a game close, they have the confidence of knowing that they can finish the job.

Prediction- Montreal Alouettes 14- 24 Saskatchewan Roughriders

Cody Fajardo was not himself on many occasions last week, but he is a resilient quarterback who prides himself on correcting past mistakes, and we expect him to step up and show everyone what he is made of this weekend.

Montreal should be able to keep this game close and be tough to throw against, but Fajardo takes what the defense gives him, and his legs can make the difference.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Toronto Argonauts

A 3-0 start and a +23-point differential would suggest that the Bombers are firing on all cylinders, but sometimes statistics can be misleading, and this may be one of those instances.

Being undefeated is what we all expected from the two-time defending Grey Cup champions, however, they have not looked like the unstoppable force from 2021.

Brady Oliveira seems to be feeling the weight of having to fill the massive void left by Andrew Harris, averaging no more than 3.7 yards per carry in a single game this season, while Zach Collaros has lacked consistency so far.

Their defense did the job against Hamilton last Friday with a pair of interceptions to turn the tide in their favour.

While the offense continues to find its way with many new receivers in the fold, Mike O’Shea has the lovely luxury of having a defensive unit full of all-stars, who are capable of holding teams off the scoreboard, until their offensive unit finds their form.

Luck was on the Argos side in week two of the season, as David Cote missed a chip-shot field goal that would have given Montreal the victory.

Ryan Dinwiddie’s team was not so lucky last week as their defense was picked apart on the ground and through the air by the Lions, allowing 436 passing yards, while David Mackie ran through their defensive line, carrying the ball 16 times for 90 yards and a major score.

After running for a solid 87 yards in his Argos debut, Andrew Harris was held in check last week, carrying the ball seven times for 27 yards, while DaVaris Daniels was their leading receiver, picking up 60 yards on three catches.

McLeod Bethel-Thompson has not looked bad through the opening two games but has not utilized the weapons at his disposal, and you would think that he will want to go more vertical this weekend.

Prediction- Winnipeg Blue Bombers 30-17 Toronto Argonauts

When you have the kind of talent that the Bombers possess, sometimes all it takes is one or two big plays on offense or defense to come away victorious, and that has been the case for them after three weeks.

The Argos showed they can be vulnerable in the air last week, while often being average on the offensive side, and playing at that level against a defense like Winnipeg is unlikely to be enough to earn you a win.