CFL WEEK 7 PICKS

CFL / Football

Written by Joel Lefevre

Week seven in the CFL season should be a welcomed change for clubs across the league as they all get an extra day to rest with the first set of games starting on Friday.

Fresh off the most competitive week so far in 2022, where every game came down to a touchdown or less, there should be plenty of optimism and encouragement among the players and fans.

Beginning with a doubleheader on Friday night, here is a full breakdown of all four games and my predictions.

Source (Background Photo): CFL

Montreal Alouettes at Ottawa Redblacks

Ottawa has to feel a little hard done by to still be winless this season, given that they have been right there in virtually every contest, losing three times by a field goal or less.

Caleb Evans got his starting job back temporarily last week in Hamilton, going 18 of 30 for 203 yards and a touchdown, along with two interceptions as six different receivers caught passes, led by Jaelon Acklin, who had six grabs for 118 yards and a major score.

Defensively Paul LaPolice saw his team get some solid pressure along the line of scrimmage, as they had five sacks, and are currently tied for third in that category with 13.

At the moment, they are getting their share of time with the ball, averaging over 30 minutes of possession, but are not moving into scoring position enough to make those drives count, holding the second-worst mark when it comes to two and outs (32), while also scoring the second-least points in the league (96).

The Als let one slip through their fingertips again last week, and they know it, as they had a 13-point advantage heading into the fourth quarter against the Elks before falling by a single point.

Trevor Harris had some good moments and some not-so-good, throwing for 241 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but also had two interceptions.

They don’t move the ball consistently well on offence, possessing the second-worst net offence in the league after six weeks (1579 yards).

Staying disciplined will be something interim head coach Danny Maciocia will want to see improvements on when his team takes to the field on Friday as they have 468 penalty yards, while they have not created as many turnovers as you would have thought given their stingy defensive unit, with only one fumble recovery and six interceptions.

They have been on the field longer than they would like, allowing the second-most first downs (113) and rushing first downs (40) in the entire CFL.

Prediction- Ottawa Redblacks 17-14 Montreal Alouettes

With the number of passing attempts Harris has each game, it’s no surprise that his numbers are usually high in terms of yards through the air; however, he still forces the ball and misreads coverages at least a couple of times a game.

Expect another tight game in this one, which historically you’d think might spell bad news for the team from the nation’s capital, but if they can spread the ball around and tire out the Als defensive line, we could see them finally catch a break.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats at BC Lions

At long last, Hamilton got themselves in the win column against the Redblacks, who were missing their starting QB through injury.

A 1-4 start is not what Orlando Steinauer had expected, but the good news is they are in the East Division and that one win put them in a playoff position, within a game now of first-place Toronto.

The running game continues to be stagnant as four different players had carries out of the backfield last week, and they still couldn’t crack the century mark between them, rushing for 86 yards as they sit dead last in the league in terms of yards on the ground (323), forcing them into numerous second and long situations, while they have the fewest second down conversions in the CFL after six weeks.

Even though he still makes a few poor reads once in a while, Dane Evans has done an excellent job when it comes to spreading the ball around to his receivers, as they are second in passing yards and completions.

The defensive line has struggled to get to opposing quarterbacks, but they have a solid linebacking corps who have limited the opposition’s gains, led by Jovan Santos-Knox, who is on pace for 115 tackles this season and 133 defensive plays.

Nathan Rourke and the high-powered Lions offence return from a bye week after being humbled at home by the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, suffering their first defeat of the season, 43-22.

The second-year Victoria pivot had probably his worst outing as a starting QB; although, statistically speaking, you might believe he played well, going 16 of 25 for 278 yards and three touchdowns.

The timing of those two interceptions that he threw were absolute backbreakers as they occurred with the Lions marching and seemingly gaining momentum.

Nonetheless, he’s on pace to throw for 6,098 yards which would be the third-most in league history and, if achieved, would shatter the Canadian record that Russ Jackson set back in 1969 (3,641).

The Lions are near the top of the charts in virtually every statistical offensive team category, while also doing a solid job containing opposing offensive units.

However, they have not had the best at kick coverage, allowing a touchdown on the opening kickoff versus Winnipeg, while allowing the most punt return yard average and third-most kickoff return yard average in the league.

Prediction- Hamilton Tiger-Cats 13-45 BC Lions

We expect to see that highly efficient Lions offence come up with a big game at home and given how poor Hamilton has been on the ground, it should lead to plenty of two-and-outs for the club from Steeltown.

The Ti-Cats are dead-last in the CFL regarding sacks (nine), and if Rourke has time to find his open receivers, we could see him pick apart the Hamilton secondary.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Edmonton Elks

There have been numerous times this season where the Blue Bombers looked destined for a loss before making some magic happen.

Last week with the Stampeders driving, Bo Levi Mitchell found Kamar Jorden, who had it in his hands in the end zone but couldn’t quite come down with it, laying it up perfectly for Demerio Houston to intercept and keep the Grey Cup champs unbeaten with a 6-0 record.

Zach Collaros seems to have gotten his mojo back, playing mistake-free football in consecutive games.

Former Elks receiver Greg Ellingson is answering all of the questions that critics had about this team’s depth at that position when Winnipeg let Darvin Adams and Kenny Lawler leave.

Ellingson is on pace for 1,554 receiving yards, currently leading the league with 34 receptions for 518 yards.

Winnipeg’s D continues to block the passing lanes, leading the league in pass knockdowns (20), while Adam Bighill continues to wrap up players with ease, moving into eighth all-time last week on the tackles list with 767 for his career, surpassing a former Bomber, Greg Battle.

Despite averaging the fewest yards per gain on the ground (3.8), they still find ways to move the ball well and create fatigue on opposing defences, leading the league in time of possession, averaging 33:29 a game after six weeks of the season.

The Elks saved their best for last, scoring 14 points in the fourth quarter to stun the Alouettes, winning 32-31 in week six.

Taylor Cornelius was 19 of 31 for 230 yards, a touchdown and one interception in the victory, while former Bomber Kenny Lawler continues to be a favourite target, catching seven balls for 92 yards and a major score.

Edmonton struggled to get much pressure on the quarterback in that encounter with just one sack, while they have made it too easy for opposing teams to move the ball, allowing the highest completion percentage (76.5%) and the fewest pass knockdowns in the CFL with only two.

Emmanuel Arceneaux has gone through a nice bounce-back campaign, with the veteran receiver currently on pace to rack up 923 yards through the air, the most since 2017 when he had 1,137 as a member of the BC Lions.

They sit bottom of the league when it comes to passing yards and completion percentage, while also allowing an average of 9.6 yards per pass defensively.

Prediction- Winnipeg Blue Bombers 40- 17 Edmonton Elks

At long last, Mike O’Shea’s offensive unit is starting to gel, and given how much the Elks have struggled in hurrying opposing quarterbacks and disrupting passes, Collaros Ellingson and company could rack up some impressive numbers against what could be the weakest defensive unit in the CFL.

Toronto Argonauts at Saskatchewan Roughriders

In one of the most heated games in week six of the CFL season, the Argos and Riders are ready to do it all again to wrap up week seven.

Last Sunday, the Double Blue became only the second Eastern team this season to defeat a Western opponent, thanks in large part to some big plays from their defence, who had three interceptions and were able to get some good pressure on Cody Fajardo, sacking him five times.

Veteran running back Andrew Harris needs just 75 more rushing yards to reach 10,000 in his CFL career.

Doing that this weekend would make him the first Canadian to reach that milestone and put him in some exclusive company alongside Mike Pringle (16,425), George Reid (16,115), Damon Allen (11,920), Johnny Bright (10,909) and Charles Roberts (10, 285) as the only other players to accumulate that much on the ground.

McLeod Bethel-Thompson has been forced into numerous second and long situations, with his team last in average yards on first down (5.5) and also at the bottom in terms of total first downs (81).

He has been relatively well protected, with the Argos allowing just nine sacks so far, and they sit third in completion percentage (70.8%).

A perfect home record for the green Riders is in serious jeopardy this weekend as the club has confirmed that 13 players, plus five other staff members have tested positive for COVID.

Fajardo was not at his best in Nova Scotia a week ago, tossing three picks, while their defensive line was held in check for the first time all season, as they did not have a single sack.

Craig Dickenson will have to dig deep into the playbook to devise a big plan, while also counting on his depth chart to step up.

As good as their d-line has been, they do not help themselves when it comes to penalties, with the most in the league accounting for 647 yards.

Prediction- Toronto Argonauts 24-20 Saskatchewan Roughriders.

The amount of potential COVID exclusions should give the Argos a decided edge, and they should also feel pretty confident about what they were able to do against one of the best QBs in the league.

If Jamal Morrow can play and the Riders' d-line can get back to dominating the line of scrimmage, the Riders are in with a chance, however, this seems like too much for them to overcome.