CFL WEEK 6 PREDICTIONS

CFL / Football

Written by Joel Lefevre

We head into week six of the CFL regular season with a new coach in Montreal, the Grey Cup champs still unblemished, a prized running back making his mark in Saskatchewan, and the likelihood that by the end of it all, only one team will remain winless.

Plenty of storylines and intrigue to unpack, so here is a look at all four games and my predictions.

Source (Background Photo): CFL

Edmonton Elks at Montreal Alouettes

It was a rough week five for the Elks who relapsed back into a performance similar to their opening week.

The Nick Arbuckle experiment in Edmonton is over as he was dealt to the Ottawa Redblacks.

At the same time, Tre Ford broke his collarbone in a 49-6 loss to the Calgary Stampeders, leaving Taylor Cornelius as the starting QB with a lot on his plate.

It seems scary for Elks fans to bring in a new face, who had little to no experience a year ago, but it’s not as if the previous pivots did anything special this season as they all played adequately at best.

The issue Chris Jones has at the moment is that his defense cannot seem to find a way to get off the field, allowing the most offensive net yards so far this year (2043), while also leading the league in points allowed (189) and offensive touchdowns conceded (18).

A third loss in four games was enough for Montreal general manager Danny Maciocia to pull the plug on Khari Jones as the Quebec native returns to the sidelines to face the team who gave him his first shot in the CFL and a club that he guided to the 2005 Grey Cup as head coach.

His current team had a bye week to acclimate to their new boss on the sidelines, and they will have an iconic face who needs no introduction to Montreal fans, as Anthony Calvillo will be in charge of the offense for the moment.

Trevor Harris seems like he will remain the number one guy right now ahead of Vernon Adams, and the former Elks QB and his offense have not had an easy time keeping drives alive, ranked dead last when it comes to second down conversion percentage (38.0%).

They continue to get good pressure on the defensive line, currently second in the league regarding sacks (13), and in the secondary, they have allowed the fewest passing yard average in the CFL (7.5 yards).

Prediction- Edmonton Elks 17-20 Montreal Alouettes

Having some new play-callers and a new face on the sidelines traditionally equals better results early on and we anticipate that will occur in La Belle Province on Thursday.

The East has only beaten the West Division once so far this year, but if there is a team that looks vulnerable at the moment, it would be the Elks, who have not shown enough consistency on the defensive side, while offensively, they are good but rarely great.

Calgary Stampeders at Winnipeg Blue Bombers

It’s another battle of undefeated teams going toe-to-toe at Investors Group Field in Winnipeg, which will be the showcase week six matchup.

For Calgary, Bo Levi Mitchell and his crew looked dominant in every way last week, as the Stamps pivot threw for 279 yards and two touchdowns, while Ka’Deem Carey had another great game on the ground, rushing for 104 yards and two major scores.

Dave Dickenson’s team is second in the league when it comes to passing yards (1195), averaging 8.9 per play through the air as Mitchell is developing great chemistry with his receivers, as seven different ones caught passes from the two-time Grey Cup champ a week ago.

Malik Henry has been a favourite target of Mitchell, as he leads the league with 388 yards receiving, while the offensive line also deserves a shoutout for how well they’ve protected their all-star pivot, allowing the second-fewest sacks in the CFL (four).

If there is a question surrounding this team right now, it might be that they have not truly faced a worthy opponent defensively, as three of their four games have been against the two teams who’ve conceded the most points this season, Edmonton (twice) and Hamilton.

For weeks we’ve been wondering when the real Winnipeg Blue Bombers will show up, and the two-time Grey Cup champions made an emphatic statement in Vancouver last weekend that they are still a team to be feared.

From the opening kickoff in BC, a kickoff that Janarion Grant ran back for a major score, Winnipeg was in command and never looked in terrible danger.

They looked as good in all three facets of the game as we had seen all season against a Lions team that had so much momentum heading into that encounter.

Zach Collaros was brilliant, going 23 of 30 for 288 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions, and although the defense allowed a few big plays, they also caused a couple of turnovers which kept the momentum in their favour.

Mike O’Shea still has work to do to fix the running game as Brady Oliveira and Johnny Augustine have shared the duties, though neither has been convincing, as Winnipeg is averaging a league-low 4.1 yards per carry.

On the front line, they are still solid as ever, allowing only 332 yards rushing, second only to Saskatchewan, while they are the only team who have not conceded an offensive touchdown on the ground.

Prediction- Calgary Stampeders 30- 37 Winnipeg Blue Bombers

I expect this to be a back-and-forth game between two teams who have a ton of weapons offensively and even more playmakers on defense.

The X-factor in this one could be turnovers, and the Stamps have lost three fumbles this year which has killed drives.

The Bombers d always seem to create turnovers at the most ideal time; plus, they have allowed the fewest points (85) of any team in the CFL.

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Toronto Argonauts

Atlantic Canada will be blessed with another CFL game on Saturday, as Nova Scotians will witness, what appears to be a new star in the making in Jamal Morrow.

There is two-headed monster brewing in Saskatchewan as Morrow, and Frankie Hickson combined for 170 rushing yards on 21 carries in their 28-13 win over Ottawa last Friday.

Cody Fajardo continues to make smart decisions with the football, without an interception in four of their five games played this year.

While their o-line has done a great job of opening up holes for the running game, the Riders' defensive line has at times looked unstoppable, leading the league in sacks made (23) and allowed (19).

The Argos had a week to contemplate their heartbreaking loss at BMO Field against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in which an extra point sent them to defeat.

Andrew Harris gave his team a spark in that game, rushing for 111 yards, showing that he still has something left in the tank.

Toronto has yet to get their dynamic group of receivers enough touches, sitting dead last in the CFL when it comes to completions at 66.

Their secondary has done an excellent job of keeping some big-play pass catchers in check, sitting second in the CFL in terms of passing yards allowed (935), while rarely conceding big chunk plays through the air, as only three passes against them have gone for 30 yards or more.

They are near the middle of the pack regarding rushing yards allowed and will probably face their biggest test in that department this weekend.

Prediction- Saskatchewan Roughriders 30- 24 Toronto Argonauts

McLeod Bethel-Thompson should be able to find success through the air and make some big plays against a secondary that has allowed an average of 8.6 yards per attempt.

On the opposite side, though, the Argos have struggled to get to opposing quarterbacks, with the fewest sacks in the league (five), and if you allow Cody Fajardo and that running game too much time to make plays, they will kill you.

Ottawa Redblacks at Hamilton Tiger-Cats

The only two teams without a win this season face off at Tim Hortons Field to wrap up week six.

For Ottawa, the story has been close but no cigar, losing three of their four games by a touchdown or less.

Offensive guru and head coach Paul LaPolice will have to find a way to soldier on without Jeremiah Masoli, who suffered a bone-related injury in a 28-13 loss to Saskatchewan Roughriders.

They made a move to acquire Nick Arbuckle from the Edmonton Elks, and whether it is he or Caleb Evans who starts, they should be able to count on a stingy offensive line that has allowed the third-fewest sacks, while also possessing the third-highest passing yard average in the league.

Over in the Steel City, the Tiger-Cats have to be one of if not the most disappointing stories to date in this CFL season as they sit 0-4 for the first time since 2017.

Their running game has slowed them down tremendously, averaging a league-low four yards per carry, which has put a ton of pressure on quarterback Dane Evans and the offense, who are second in the CFL in terms of completions (105).

While they have gotten their hands on several passes, with 13 knockdowns, the stingy defense, which was among the most vital points of their game in their back-to-back trips to the Grey Cup, has struggled to find a way into the backfield and produce losses, with the second-fewest sacks in the league (six).

Orlando Steinauer’s team has moved the ball decently on offense, but they have sputtered a little in the red zone, scoring the third-fewest TDs (five) at this stage of the season.

Prediction- Ottawa Redblacks 14-34 Hamilton Tigercats

Hamilton is likely to win this one simply due to circumstances as we expect Ottawa to have a hard time generating much offensively without Masoli behind centre.

Ottawa has been more consistent this season than the Ti-Cats; however, Evans should be able to utilize his weapons better on offense, while the defense shouldn’t have a difficult time keeping Ottawa off the field.