CFL WEEK 5 PICKS

CFL / Football

Written by Joel Lefevre

Week Five of the CFL season will have the fewest games on the schedule, but still several intriguing matchups to look out for beginning on Thursday.

The main event will feature the two-time defending Grey Cup champions battling the team who has captured the imagination of football fans around the county.

At the same time, the week kicks off with an always enticing Battle of Alberta and in between an Ottawa Redblacks team seeking their first victory of 2022.

Here is a breakdown of all three games and my predictions.

Source (Background Photo): CFL

Calgary Stampeders at Edmonton Elks

Fresh off a bye week, Dave Dickenson’s Calgary Stampeders return to the field on Thursday for the second Battle of Alberta of 2022.

When you are winning, time off is usually the last thing you want, but in the case of Calgary, it has allowed veteran quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell to rest up and heal his foot injury.

The Stampeders are 3-0 and have had to earn each of those wins, beating both the Alouettes and Tiger-Cats by a field goal while erasing a three-point deficit at halftime against Edmonton in a week three, claiming a 30-23 victory.

Mitchell and his teammates on offense have looked sharp, averaging 29 points per game and 387 yards.

In the end, winning is the only thing that matters; however, they will want to avoid digging themselves some early holes, as 61 of their 80 points allowed have come in the opening half.

It may only be one game, but over in Edmonton, a new quarterback may have breathed new life into a campaign that started about as poorly as Chris Jones could have imagined, allowing 59 points against BC in a blowout loss.

The numbers for Tre Ford were not exactly earth-shattering in his debut, going 15 of 26 for 159 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, but the #8 overall pick in this year’s draft out of Waterloo saved his best for last, hitting Kenny Lawler for a touchdown in the fourth quarter before the defense stepped up to win them the ball game.

Lawler has quickly become an impact player, leading the league with 24 receptions and being targeted more than any receiver in the CFL (36).

While the victory will boost their confidence, Jones knows that he still has a big job ahead of him to fix their leaky defense, which has allowed an average of 409.8 total yards per contest.

In 2021 the Elks secondary struggled to give the offense a boost with big plays or turnovers.

That problem has resurfaced this season as Edmonton has the fewest interceptions in the league (two).

However, it was a forced fumble return for a touchdown, which ultimately gave them their first victory of the season.

Prediction- Calgary Stampeders 30- 20 Edmonton Elks

Edmonton has progressed each week, but they haven’t done enough to show they can consistently force teams into two-and-out situations.

Part of the reason is they are losing those battles along the line of scrimmage, allowing an average of 5.7 yards per carry, the most to this point of the season.

Mitchell is 13-4 in Battle of Alberta tilts, and in the end, Calgary has too many dependable players to get the job done, so expect them to remain unbeaten.

Ottawa Redblacks at Saskatchewan Roughriders

An element of luck has impacted the results of numerous games thus far in the regular season, but unfortunately for Paul LaPolice, his Redblacks have not had much of that good fortune come their way.

As one of only two teams without a win this year, they have to be thinking about what it’ll take for them to finally get a W, losing all three of their encounters by a single score.

Jeremiah Masoli had his worst outing of the season last week, going 14 of 27 for 162 yards, but he has not thrown an interception in his previous two games.

Their receivers have done a solid job catching the ball but are missing somebody to make big plays to turn the momentum in their favour, with only one receiving touchdown after three games.

They have led going into halftime in two of their three contests, which has to be disappointing knowing they’ve not been able to hold onto those advantages.

Saskatchewan got back on track last week in a convincing 41-20 triumph over the Montreal Alouettes.

The Riders were missing Shaq Evans with an ankle injury, but Cody Fajardo’s other receivers stepped up in his absence as seven different players caught passes, with Kian Schaffer-Baker leading the way with seven receptions for 90 yards and a major score.

Whatever kind of pep talks Craig Dickenson delivers in the locker room at halftime, it seems to do the trick as 78 of their points scored so far this season have come in the second half.

While losing Shaq Evans is cause for concern, the Riders seem to have a dependable running back capable of carrying the load as Jamal Morrow leads the league with 257 yards on the ground, while also adding two touchdowns.

On the opposite side of the ball, they can count on a reliable d-line who’ve done well to win those battles in the trenches, allowing an average of 4.2 yards per carry, the lowest in the CFL, while they also have 21 quarterback sacks, eight more than the next closest team, the Montreal Alouettes.

Prediction- Ottawa Redblacks 17-20 Saskatchewan Roughriders

While I am a big believer in karma, good or bad, and the Redblacks are certainly due for some good, the Riders have found a way to win games without constantly being at their best, whereas Ottawa has not.

Morrow could be a handful running the ball in this one, and even though Ottawa welcomed back William Powell last week, we expect the Riders to grind it out and come up with the W.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at BC Lions

The showcase fixture of week five will pit a pair of undefeated West Division teams in what promises to be an entertaining matchup.

For the Bombers, starting 4-0 and leading the division is what we all expected, although we could not have anticipated how it has all transpired.

Winnipeg has had an element of luck involved in each of their victories so far, and that was especially the case on Monday as they were fortunate to come away with a one-point win against the Argos after Boris Bede missed an extra-point which would have forced overtime.

Offensively they have not played consistently well throughout an entire game, though Zach Collaros has shown flashes of brilliance, notably against Toronto, where he completed a league-high 14 consecutive passes.

Brady Oliveira still hasn’t found his rhythm on the ground, as he and his Bomber teammates have averaged a league-low 3.9 yards per carry.

While the offense has often looked inconsistent, their defense continues to step up and make plays at critical junctures, with the second-most interceptions (five), after four games.

For the first-time all-season, Lions rookie sensation Nathan Rourke looked human at times a week ago, throwing for two interceptions against Ottawa, but still managing to secure a 34-31 victory.

The early favourite for Most Outstanding Player still had 359 yards through the air and two touchdowns, while rushing for one himself, with his offensive unit averaging a league-high 10.3 yards per play this season.

While Rourke has gotten the majority of the praise for the team’s early success, BC has been stellar in virtually every statistical category, allowing the fewest yards through the air (628), while the offensive line has done a tremendous job at giving their QB time to find his open receivers, with the Lions currently tied for the fewest sacks allowed in the CFL (two).

The Victoria pivot has managed to spread the ball around to numerous weapons, as six or more players have caught passes from him in each of their three victories.

Defensively, BC has allowed the fewest yards of anyone on the ground (183) and is the only team in the league so far to conceded under 200 rushing yards.

They have often avoided second and long situations, with a strong running attack that is averaging 6.5 yards per carry.

They have also made big plays in the secondary to kill any momentum opposing teams may try to garner, leading the CFL with six picks thus far in 2022.

Prediction- Winnipeg Blue Bombers 24-30 BC Lions

Winnipeg’s defense will face its biggest challenge of the young season, and although Rourke had his worst outing as a pro last week, he still put up 300-plus yards through the air, which shows you what kind of a supporting cast he can count on if times are tough and how resilient the youngster is.

At the moment the Bombers are missing a reliable back who can carry the heavy load and take some pressure off their defense, who could be on the field a long time this weekend.