CFL WEEK 15 PREDICTIONS

CFL / Football

Written by Joel Lefevre

Following week 14 in the CFL, the East and West Division leaders gave themselves some more breathing room atop the standings, while the BC Lions, Edmonton Elks and Saskatchewan Roughriders are in a bit of a slump.

We have a light schedule with only three games on tap in week 15, including a doubleheader on Saturday, beginning with a Grey Cup rematch from 2019 and 2021.

Source (Background Photo): Peter McCabe/CFL.ca

Here is a look ahead to each of those encounters and my predictions.

Edmonton Elks at Saskatchewan Roughriders

In his second stint as head coach in Edmonton, Chris Jones has seen plenty of inconsistencies from his team in 2022, as his players have competed hard at times and then fallen apart on plenty of occasions.

Last Saturday, it was the latter as a far superior Calgary Stampeders squad outclassed them in a 56-28 loss for the Green and Gold.

Elks QB Taylor Cornelius went 23 of 32 for 292 yards, plus a touchdown and an interception.

Edmonton has the worst rushing attack among West Division teams, though Kevin Brown ran the ball effectively versus the Stamps, with 10 carries for 91 yards, the defence could not contain Ka’Deem Carey.

While two Edmonton receivers reached the century mark in receiving yards last week (Dillon Mitchell and Derel Walker), their overall passing efficiency has not been good enough.

They sit dead last in the league in that category, while they also have the worst completion percentage in the CFL (60%).

They have moved the ball well this season, currently third in the league for first downs (253), however, their defence tends to get tired as they are out there usually for a long time, allowing the second-most first downs (267).

It appeared that the sting of a narrow defeat in the Labour Day Classic was still weighing on the minds of Rider players last Saturday.

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers took full advantage, dominating Saskatchewan from start to finish, beating their prairie rivals 54-20.

Perhaps the flu bug going around the green locker room had something to do with it, as they could not stop the Winnipeg offence throughout 60 minutes, while Cody Fajardo was average at best, going 15 for 18 and 124 yards.

Frankie Hickson has provided some stability to the offence at running back, averaging 7.1 yards per carry against Winnipeg.

Still, the offensive line needs to protect their quarterback better, allowing a league-high 51 sacks this season, while their top-rated defensive unit only registered one sack on Collaros last weekend.

While they have run the ball effectively, the Riders have struggled to keep drives alive as they are currently dead last regarding second down conversions, operating at 40.1%.

The Riders sit third in the league in terms of completions of 30 yards or more (20), though they have had a lot of big plays negated by a lack of discipline, as Saskatchewan is the most penalized team in the CFL, averaging 11.3 flags against them per game.

• Prediction- Edmonton Elks 22-24 Saskatchewan Roughriders

Following a blowout loss, the Elks always tend to rebound nicely, and we expect they will keep this game close against a Riders team who are not the most efficient on offence.

While these teams are near the bottom of numerous statistical categories, Saskatchewan has shown an ability to be a little better offensively than Edmonton, and they can create their share of turnovers as well, two areas which should give them the advantage needed to win this game.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Hamilton Tiger-Cats

A rematch of the Grey Cup finalists in each of the past two seasons will feature one team who has been largely underwhelming in 2022 (Hamilton) and another that looks poised to make another trip back to the big game in November.

Mike O’Shea’s team has had to squeak out their share of wins this year, but at the Banjo Bowl last week, they left absolutely no doubt that they are the team to beat at the moment as Winnipeg scored on virtually every possession and were relentless against their arch-rivals from Saskatchewan.

Zack Collaros threw four touchdown passes last Saturday, and he currently leads the league with 26 TD tosses in 2022, while going 21/25 for 273 yards.

Seven different receivers caught passes from last season’s Grey Cup MVP in the Banjo Bowl, and those sure-handed pass catchers have enabled Winnipeg to rank second in completion percentage (70.6%).

Defensively they have allowed their share of completions as well though, conceding the third-most in the league (283).

Still, the Bombers have made up for that by coming up with interceptions or fumbles at critical moments, with a turnover ratio of +12, which is second only to the Calgary Stampeders.

There is probably no team in the league this season that has fallen from grace more than the Hamilton Ti-Cats.

Orlando Steinauer’s team is coming off a bye week and will hope that Dane Evans is healthy enough to return, as they have struggled mightily throughout the year, scoring the second-fewest offensive points (237), while allowing the second-most overall.

Currently third in the league for passing yards (284.1-yard average), Hamilton has had the ball for a good portion of their games, averaging just over 30 minutes per game, which ranks third in the CFL.

As effective as they have been at times on the offensive side of the ball though, the boys from Steeltown have often wasted opportunities to score points, currently tied with the Redblacks and Argos for the fewest offensive touchdowns (20) this season.

Hamilton is second from the bottom in terms of first downs, though their secondary has improved, allowing the third-lowest opposition completion percentage in 2022 (65.1%).

• Prediction- Winnipeg Blue Bombers 42- 21 Hamilton Tiger-Cats

If Evans is healthy, Hamilton should be able to move the ball well through the air, however, he makes too many errors, and the Bombers are among the best in the league at creating turnovers at critical junctures, plus they have many more weapons to count upon offensively when compared to the Tiger-Cats.

BC Lions at Calgary Stampeders

The Lions are in a downward spiral at the moment, and it all stems from the long-term injury sustained by Nathan Rourke weeks ago.

Antonio Pipkin was behind centre for most of their game in Montreal, though Vernon Adams is expected to take the starting role when he learns the offence eventually.

Regardless of who starts this weekend, Rick Campbell’s offence has not been convincing since Rourke went down as they were only able to score 10 points against the Alouettes, while their O-line allowed five sacks, dropping them into second in the CFL for sacks allowed (16).

They still lead the league in net offence, while their secondary continues to give them a chance, allowing the lowest completion percentage (64.9%) in the league.

Following two victories against their provincial rivals, the Stampeders are in a position to overtake the Lions for second in the West Division.

Jake Maier went 20 of 26 in the Labour Day rematch for 287 yards and a touchdown, while the top-rated running attack was dominant against the Elks, particularly Ka’Deem Carey, who had nine rushes for 118 yards and a major score, to reclaim the CFL lead for rushing yards (712).

Because their running game has been so effective, it has made up for their struggles through the air as the Stamps have the third-lowest completion percentage (66%) in the CFL, while allowing more completions (301) and passing yards (296.2-yard average) than any other team.

They have scored the second-most points in the league this season (379), while their offensive line has allowed their new QB plenty of time to find open receivers, conceding a league-low 12 sacks so far this year.

• Prediction- BC Lions 17-42 Calgary Stampeders

The Lions are still struggling to find their way without Rourke, while the Stamps are beginning to surge, and we anticipate Calgary will be able to keep possession for long stretches given their impressive ground game, while they are reasonably efficient in the red zone, scoring 30 offensive TDs, the third most in the CFL.