CFL WEEK 13 PREDICTIONS

CFL / Football

Written by Joel Lefevre

One of the most anticipated regular season weekends of the CFL season is upcoming as several rivalries will be renewed in the Labour Day Classics.

Week 12 began with another thriller as the Bombers got the best of the Calgary Stampeders once again, while BC’s injury woes continued, and the Edmonton Elks extended their lengthy losing streak at home.

While these Labour Day matchups always have a degree of bragging rights, there are some big games with playoff implications in both the West and East Divisions.

Here is a breakdown of every matchup this weekend and my predictions.

Source (Background Photo): Minas Panagiotakis / Getty Images Sport

Ottawa Redblacks at Montreal Alouettes

Ottawa got their second win of the season at long last a week ago, as Nick Arbuckle looked terrific, going 21 of 32 for 219 yards and no interceptions against his former team with seven different receivers catching passes at Commonwealth, led by Nate Behar.

The latter had four grabs for 101 yards to lead the way for Ottawa, who looked consistently sharp on the offensive side of the ball.

Despite having the worst record in the league up to this point, there is still reason for optimism for Paul LaPolice’s team, who only have one more game against a West Division opponent (BC Lions) this season, while only two wins separate them from second-place Montreal.

If they are to climb up the table, they need to start putting the ball in the end zone more as the Redblacks have the second-best net offence in the East with an average of 335.3 yards per game, but have scored the fewest TDs (17).

They have done well to keep drives alive, converting 48.3% of their second downs, while their secondary has done well to contain opposing receivers, allowing the fewest opposition completions (193) this season.

With the playoff race in the East heating up, the last thing the Alouettes need is another off-field distraction, but that will be the case heading into this weekend.

Minority owner Gary Stern will leave the team, suggesting that principal owner Sid Spiegel might put the Alouettes up for sale.

Danny Maciocia’s team needs to put that aside and focus on their game this Friday, as the Als are fresh off a bye week and riding high, winning their last two encounters in thrilling fashion.

Geno Lewis has become a favourite target of quarterback Trevor Harris, catching seven passes from him in their last-second victory over the Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

He is second in the CFL in receiving yards (849) and has the most receiving targets in the league (92).

They may be an efficient team on offence, with the third-best average gains per pass (8.7) in the league this season, but you will not see as much razzle-dazzle from them as they only have 13 completions of 30 yards or more.

The Als have had to rely on the passing game to get them through several contests this season as they are second-last in the CFL for rushing yards (819) while allowing the second-most yards on the ground (1087).

Prediction- Ottawa Redblacks 24-20

Things have a way of evening themselves out in this league, as the Redblacks looked much more focused and determined last week, and we expect them to carry their solid play into Montreal against a team that has yet to play a solid 60 minutes of football in 2022.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Saskatchewan Roughriders

The defending Grey Cup champions got back in the win column last week, by the thinnest of margins, sweeping their season series with the Calgary Stampeders thanks to a 31-29 victory at Investors Group Field.

For a team that lost so many reliable veterans on offence during the off-season, the newcomers have contributed significantly to their success, with the latest unsung hero being Greg McCrae, who caught five passes from Zach Collaros last week for 95 yards and a touchdown, while Nick Demski had eight grabs for 117 yards and a TD himself.

Collaros went 19 for 26 against the Stamps for 294 yards, two major scores and two interceptions, as he and the offence have looked much more dynamic.

They have looked that way thanks partly to the Bombers' vast improvement on the ground, with Brady Oliveira now leading the league in rushing yards (604), averaging 7.5 yards per carry last Thursday.

The Bombers have the second-best completion percentage in the league (70.5%), though they have not gotten as much pressure on opposing quarterbacks of late, with only 22 sacks so far this year, the third-worst total in the CFL.

Saskatchewan moved back above .500 for the season, handing the BC Lions their second loss of 2022 last week.

Offensively the Riders looked as efficient last Friday as we have seen in a long time, with Cody Fajardo putting up his first 300-plus-passing yard game of the season, while Frankie Hickson had 15 carries for 129 yards on the ground.

Craig Dickenson will be encouraged by the victory, especially seeing as they took just six penalties for 63 yards versus BC, though they failed to protect their quarterback as Fajardo was sacked six times.

While they didn’t have an interception last week and only produced one sack, they are third in the league for picks with 13, while they lead the CFL, having dropped opposing QBs behind the line of scrimmage on 34 occasions.

Prediction Winnipeg Blue Bombers 20-13 Saskatchewan Roughriders

These two teams do not make it easy for opposing offences to score, as the Bombers and Riders are first and third, respectively, in the CFL regarding points allowed.

As good as they looked on the offensive side of the ball last week, the Riders failed to get a lot of pressure or slow down a Lions team missing their top two quarterbacks on the depth chart.

We expect the Bombers’ efficient running attack and depth at receiver to carry the day in this one.

Toronto Argonauts at Hamilton Tiger-Cats

The Argos got back in the win column for the first time since Week Nine, thanks to an outstanding second half against the Ti-Cats, scoring 27 points and staying atop the East Division standings, with a record of 5-5.

In that game, McLeod Bethel-Thompson moved into sole possession of fourth-place on Toronto’s all-time passing list, moving beyond CFL icon Doug Flutie as Thompson threw three touchdown passes.

With Andrew Harris still out through injury, the Argos seem to have virtually abandoned the run, with the second-fewest attempts in the league (178), while sitting dead last for rushing yards (760), average gains on the ground (4.3 yards) and rushing touchdowns (two).

Only Montreal has had fewer first downs than the Boatmen so far this year, though the Argos have been able to create their share of turnovers as Jamal Peters had three picks last week, with Toronto now second in the league with 14 interceptions, while also throwing the second-fewest in the East Division (nine).

Another poor second half proved to be the undoing of the Tiger-Cats as they missed an opportunity to tighten the race in the East Division at BMO Field.

Hamilton has allowed 302 points so far this season, 193 of which have come in the final two-quarters of a game, while they have allowed the second most touchdowns (30).

Matthew Shiltz suffered a hand injury, leading to the return of Dane Evans, who, despite throwing for 244 yards, also threw three interceptions, with Hamilton tied now with the Elks for the most INTs thrown this season (15).

They have the best competition percentage among Eastern teams (68.4%), though they have allowed their share of big plays, leading the league with 21 completions of 30 yards or more conceded against them, while also allowing 16 TD passes through the air, the most among East Division teams.

Prediction- Toronto Argonauts 24-31 Hamilton Tiger-Cats

Labour Day seems to be the one regular season encounter where you can count on the Ti-Cats to be efficient in all three phases of the game as they have not lost this traditional Monday matchup against the Argos since 2012.

Hamilton’s efficiency through the air should make the difference in this game and, despite Toronto’s ability to create turnovers, they struggle to keep opposing offences off the field, allowing the second-most completions in the CFL (246).

Edmonton Elks at Calgary Stampeders

After ending an eight-game losing streak against the Stampeders on Labour Day last season, the Elks have a chance to win back-to-back holiday Monday affairs against the Stamps for the first time since the 2004 and 2005 seasons.

Edmonton wasn’t all that bad offensively last week at home to Ottawa, with Taylor Cornelius going 14 of 37 for 287 yards and an interception, but they have not been able to turn many of their drives into points, scoring the second-fewest in the CFL (216).

They continue to struggle to get to opposing quarterbacks, while also having a hard time protecting their own, as the Elks are dead last in terms of sacks (18) and second from the bottom in sacks allowed (32).

A year ago, the Elks had a hard time creating turnovers on the defensive side of the ball.

That has continued into this season, with Edmonton having only seven picks so far in 2022 while allowing their opponents to rack up a completion percentage of 72.5%, the highest in the league.

Another tight contest didn't go the way of the Stampeders last week, with Calgary having lost four games this year by a touchdown or fewer, with three of those defeats coming against the Blue Bombers.

We saw a new face behind centre last Thursday as Jake Maier was 23 of 28 for 294 yards and three touchdowns, in place of Bo Levi Mitchell, with Malik Henry catching all three TD passes, posting seven receptions for 122 yards.

Maier will try to provide more consistency to the Stamps passing attack, who have looked stagnant at times, with the second-lowest completion percentage in the league (64.9%), while their secondary has allowed the most completions in the CFL (256).

Despite their inconsistencies, they still have the second-best net offence in the league, allowing the fewest sacks in the CFL (nine).

Defensively, they have allowed the highest net offence (371-yard average) but have managed to escape with some big plays at critical junctures, leading the league with 15 interceptions.

Prediction- Edmonton Elks 17-45 Calgary Stampeders

There are some teams that the Elks don’t match up well against, and the BC Lions and Calgary Stampeders seem to be those two teams in 2022.

We expect it will be another long afternoon for an Edmonton secondary who’ve struggled to shut down opposing offences, while offensively, they have rarely been consistently efficient.