CFL WEEK 12 PREDICTIONS

CFL / Football

Written by Joel Lefevre

The CFL standings have tightened up as the Als and Argos each have four wins in the East, one more than the Tiger-Cats, while the Lions are now 8-1 out West, with the Bombers just a win ahead of them and looking to rebound from their first defeat of the season.

Another significant injury happened last week, which will have many people watching the BC Lions this week and wondering how they will fare without their star quarterback.

Here is a look at all four matchups in week 12.

Source (Background Photo): The Associated Press

Calgary Stampeders at Winnipeg Blue Bombers

The Stamps have kept pace with this elite Bombers team in both games played this year but have come up just short in the end.

They narrowly defeated the Argonauts last Saturday in what was probably the shakiest performance of the season for Bo Levi Mitchell, who was 9 of 16 for 149 yards and two interceptions, while the running game, minus Ka’Deem Carey, struggled, with Dedrick Mills getting 11 carries for 48 yards.

Defensively the Stamps came to play, as they had five sacks. At the same time, the game turned when Elie Bouka intercepted a McLeod Bethel-Thompson pass and took it into the end zone for a major score, the 13th pick for Calgary this season, putting them tied with Saskatchewan for the most in the league.

Despite a disappointing offensive showing last week, the Stamps are still the best rushing team in the CFL, averaging 5.8 yards per carry, and they have been very efficient on first down, with an average of 7.9 yards, the most in the league.

After seeing their undefeated season end by a matter of inches, Mike O’Shea and the Bombers are back on the field looking to maintain their narrow advantage atop the West.

In their loss to the Alouettes, we saw their special teams, who were a thorn in their side in 2021, cost them dearly as Marc Liegghio missed a potential game-winning field and then struck the upright in overtime, sending Winnipeg to defeat.

During the season Winnipeg has remained patient with the run despite some early struggles, and lately, Brady Oliveira has delivered, averaging 5.6 yards per carry versus Montreal and sitting second in the league for rushing yards (544), while the Bombers are first in the CFL in rushing attempts and third in terms of yards gained on the ground.

Zach Collaros was reasonably sharp in their defeat to Montreal, going 21 of 27 for 251 yards, and he didn’t throw a pick, as he and the Bombers are second in completion percentage at 70.1%.

Predictions- Calgary Stampeders 23-27 Winnipeg Blue Bombers

We expect another tight one between these two strong squads, who are beginning to develop quite the rivalry.

Ultimately though, the Bombers always seem to make one or two more big plays, while they have been more effective in turning their drives into touchdowns which we believe will propel them to victory in this one.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Toronto Argonauts

Hamilton can put themselves right back in the thick of the race for first in the East when they head to BMO Field for a Friday night affair with the Argos.

Last week they lost a heartbreaker 29-28 on a last-second field goal by David Cote, ruining a solid performance from quarterback Matthew Shiltz, who threw for 303 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions.

They are the best Eastern team in net offence (3460 yards) and have the first downs in their division (193).

Their defence has done a much better job at getting to the quarterback with two sacks versus Montreal, moving them into fourth this season with 23, while they have been great all year at disrupting throws, leading the CFL with 39 pass knockdowns.

Toronto felt the loss of Andrew Harris last week in their defeat to Calgary as his replacement Chad Kelly only carried the ball four times for 28 yards, while a pair of turnovers by McLeod Bethel-Thompson proved costly as his pick-six and late fumble ultimately changed the complexion of that encounter.

While their running game struggled last week, this defence has had a hard time containing opposing rushing attacks, allowing an average of five yards to their opponents, the third most in the CFL.

They are third in the league in passing yards with an average of 281.3 and have converted more than 50% of their second down attempts (50.9%).

The Argos have had difficulty getting sustained pressure, failing to register a sack against the Stamps, as they sit dead last in that category alongside the Elks (16).

Prediction- Hamilton Tiger-Cats 24-17 Toronto Argonauts

The Argos’ inability to get to the quarterback should give Matthew Shiltz the freedom to take his time in the pocket and find his open receivers, while defensively, Hamilton can probably put some extra resources into stopping the pass.

Saskatchewan Roughriders at BC Lions

After missing a golden opportunity to come back at home to the BC Lions last week, the Riders will have another shot at them on Friday night.

An ineffective Cody Fajardo threw two picks last week before being pulled in favour of Mason Fine, who went 16 of 26 for 210 yards through the air with a pick and a touchdown.

Jamal Morrow still leads the league in rushing (564), but he has not run the ball quite as effectively in recent outings, averaging 3.5 yards per carry against the Elks in week 10 and rushing for only 34 yards on six carries a week ago.

They have gotten tons of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, leading the league with 33 sacks, but at the same time have not been able to protect their pivot much, allowing the most sacks in the CFL (37).

The BC Lions have been dealt a significant blow to their Grey Cup hopes as sophomore sensation Nathan Rourke has been diagnosed with a Lisfranc sprain in his foot and will undergo surgery, which could mean the end of his season.

It is an understatement to say it’s a tough pill for Rick Campbell’s team to swallow as the Victoria native leads the league in passing yards (3,281), TDs (25) and completion percentage (79.2).

His absence opens the door for another Canadian to take the spotlight as Michael O’Connor went 5 for 5 with 36 yards through the air against the Riders last week, and he will have the luxury of an all-star receiving crew with three players (Dominique Rhymes, Lucky Whitehead and Keon Hatches), currently in the top 10 for receiving yards this season.

The offensive line did as good a job as we could have expected against the Riders, allowing just a single sack, as they have conceded the second-fewest sacks after 11 weeks in the CFL (10).

Prediction- Saskatchewan Roughriders 24-30 BC Lions

In the long term, not having Rourke there could hurt the Lions, but for now, we expect them to rally and handle the Riders who have questions about their quarterback.

The Lions have a talented group of receivers who have shown they can step up and make plays, and we expect them to play a big role this weekend.

Ottawa Redblacks at Edmonton Elks

Ottawa head back on the road in search of their second victory of the season, looking to avenge a 30-12 loss to the Elks last week.

Paul LaPolice’s defence fell asleep in the second half, allowing 21 Edmonton points, while Caleb Evans did most of his damage on the ground, rushing nine times for 82 yards, but he and Nick Arbuckle were relatively ineffective through the air.

Keeping drives alive has not been a strong suit of this team in 2022, with the second-fewest first downs in the league (177), which has to be disappointing given that they have the second-best average starting field position (38.7-yard line).

Their secondary has allowed the second-fewest pass completions (179), but they are dead-last in passing touchdowns, with only six this year.

A solid second half was all the Elks needed to earn their third victory of the season as they now search for back-to-back wins for the first time in 2022.

Taylor Cornelius was by no means spectacular going 16 of 27 for 208 yards and two touchdowns, but he made smart decisions and did a great job of spreading the ball around to his receivers as seven players caught passes from him.

Edmonton are last in the league regarding completion percentage (60.7%) and has allowed the highest completion percentage to the opposition (73.2%).

The Elks lost every single home game a year ago and have not won a contest at Commonwealth Stadium since a 19-6 victory over the BC Lions on October 12, 2019.

Prediction- Ottawa Redblacks 14-Edmonton Elks 20

It has been a long time since Elks fans have been able to watch their team win a football game on their home ground, and this seems like their best opportunity as the Redblacks allow just as many big plays on defence as they make themselves on the offensive side.

At the moment, it appears that Ottawa is a little damaged regarding confidence, something that the Elks could take advantage of in this one.