CFL WEEK 11 PREDICTIONS

CFL / Football

Written by Joel Lefevre

As we reach the midway point of the 2022 CFL season, every team has at least one blemish after the Alouettes upset the Blue Bombers 20-17 in overtime.

The reigning Grey Cup champs are idle this week, giving the teams in the West a chance to gain a little ground, while the Tiger-Cats and Als face each other with identical 3-6 records, and the Argos aim to remain first in the East when wrapping up the week in Calgary.

Here is a breakdown of every game in week 11 and my predictions.

Source (Background Photo): The Canadian Press

Edmonton Elks at Ottawa Redblacks

The week begins with a matchup of bottom feeders as the Edmonton Elks travel to the nation’s capital for a date with the Ottawa Redblacks, with both teams having suffered seven losses on the year.

Edmonton did well to put their blowout loss against BC behind them in week 10, keeping the game versus Saskatchewan within one score for three quarters but ultimately they couldn’t get the job done as they had problems with discipline, being flagged 12 times for 140 yards.

Taylor Cornelius had perhaps his best outing of the season versus the Riders, going 13 of 23 for 209 yards and an interception, while he led them in rushing with seven carries for 86 yards.

Chris Jones’ squad has made it far too easy for opposing offences to throw against them, with just one sack against Saskatchewan and the fewest in the league (14), though they were a lot better against the run last week, allowing Jamal Morrow only 46 yards on the ground in an area that’s been a trouble spot for them all season with the Elks allowing the most rushing yards in the CFL (1116).

After a bye week, it’s back to business for Paul LaPolice’s Redblacks, who failed to generate much against the Stampeders in their last game, losing 17-3.

Nick Arbuckle could get his shot to be the starter this week as the former Elks and Stamps pivot replaced Caleb Evans in their previous encounter and was 17 of 23 for 186 yards with a pair of picks.

Injuries will be a big concern for them heading into this encounter as several players were missing at practice on Monday, including Douglas Coleman (hamstring), Justin Howell (shoulder), Monshadrick Hunter (hamstring), RJ Harris (hip) and Darvin Adams (personal reasons).

When you add to that the fact that William Powell (knee), Adam Auclair (hand) and Tyron Vrede (shoulder) were already on the injured list, it will make the game plan for LaPolice that much more complicated.

Their secondary has been torn apart through much of the season, allowing an average of 9.6 yards, the second-most in the league, while offensively, they have gotten by with big plays, sitting second in completions of 30 yards or more (15), though they hold the second worst pass efficiency in the CFL, clicking at a rate of 85.5.

Prediction- Edmonton Elks 23-13 Ottawa Redblacks

An argument can be made for both teams to win this encounter as they each struggle to defend the pass while being relatively inconsistent all year.

The injuries and an inability to seize opportunities when presented to them should enable the Elks to squeak past Ottawa in this one.

BC Lions at Saskatchewan Roughriders

Despite taking some heavy punches in Calgary last week, the Lions roared back in the fourth quarter, scoring 20 points, escaping with a 41-40 victory, putting them firmly in second at 7-1.

Despite throwing a pair of interceptions, Nathan Rourke showed tremendous poise and confidence when it mattered most, throwing for two touchdowns against the Stamps while going 39 of 52 for 488 yards.

While he has made most of the headlines for BC in the first 10 weeks of the campaign, his receivers have stepped up for him in a big way, as Bryan Burnham had eight grabs last week for 165 yards and a touchdown with the Lions leading the league when it comes to completion percentage at 79.7.

Defensively they have been solid all year, allowing the fewest first downs (141) and net offence (2241), though Rick Campbell would like to see them get more penetration along the line of scrimmage in this encounter after failing to register a single sack or turnover at Calgary.

The fourth quarter seems to be the time to shine for Cody Fajardo and the Saskatchewan Roughriders.

He was moving much better on his ailing knee against Edmonton, rushing eight times for 51 yards.

However, Jamal Morrow, who is second in the CFL for rushing yards (530), has struggled to get going over the past few games, putting up 25, 47 and 46 yards respectively on the ground in each of their previous three games.

Their defence came to play, with four sacks combined with an interception against the Elks, as they have now dropped opposing QBs 32 times this year behind the line of scrimmage, more than any CFL club.

Saskatchewan’s offensive line has not protected their QB as much as Craig Dickenson would like, leading the league with 32 sacks allowed, which could be a big reason why they have the second-worst net offence in the league, with a total of 2792 yards after 10 weeks.

Prediction- BC Lions 40-27 Saskatchewan Roughriders

Defences have managed to force some mistakes out of Rourke, but the Victoria native has proven to be a fast learner, capable of adjusting and bouncing back quickly from a tough series.

The BC offensive line will face perhaps their stiffest challenge yet as the Saskatchewan depth on the defensive line is scary good, but the Lions have tons of weapons which have proven they can make plays and help their young pivot.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Montreal Alouettes

It has not been the most impressive display of football lately, but the Ti-Cats have managed to find a way, winning two of their previous three encounters, scoring 17 fourth-quarter points last weekend against Toronto for a big 34-27 triumph.

They managed to win despite not having Dane Evans available because of injury as former Als QB Matthew Shiltz played well, going 14 of 19 for 176 yards with a touchdown and an interception.

Hamilton has not solved their running issues, though Orlando Steinauer has managed to get some production on the ground by giving several players touches in the backfield.

Jamie Newmann, Don Jackson, Sean Thomas-Erlington, Shiltz and Tim White combined for 149 rushing yards in their victory over Toronto.

Their defence has managed to contain opposing rushing attacks quite well, allowing the third-fewest yards on the ground so far this season (759), though the secondary has given up 16 passing plays of 30 yards or more despite leading the league when it comes to pass knockdowns (38).

Montreal did what no team had been able to do all season, defeat the Blue Bombers, earning a 20-17 victory when a Marc Liegghio field goal in overtime struck the upright.

Trevor Harris did well not to allow a turnover, going 18 of 27 for 213 yards, with Montreal having scored the most points among East Division teams so far this year (213).

Danny Maciocia’s defensive unit sacked Zach Collaros five times, bringing their total for 2022 up to 23, the second most in the CFL, though they have had a hard time keeping their opposition out of the end zone, conceding 27 touchdowns, 25 being offensive ones, the second-most in the league.

Montreal’s pass coverage has been relatively solid throughout the campaign, allowing an average of 256.4 yards, second only to the BC Lions, while gaining an average of 8.3 yards per pass, which is the third-most.

Prediction- Hamilton Tiger-Cats 28-21 Montreal Alouettes

Psychologically the Als should have an edge given who they beat last week, which could make them primed for a letdown against a Ti-Cats team, who seem to be finding solutions to their flaws over the past few weeks.

Calgary Stampeders at Toronto Argonauts

The Stamps missed a golden opportunity to climb back into the thick of the West Division race for first, allowing 20 fourth-quarter points to BC in a game that could have put them even with the Lions for second place.

While there have been consistency issues within this group, they have competed hard against the elite teams in the league, coming within one score of upsetting the Bombers twice and narrowly losing to BC.

Bo Levi Mitchell went 18 of 32 for 206 yards and a pair of scores against the Lions, as his receivers have failed to make enough plays for them lately, with the fewest completions in the CFL this season (161) while allowing the second-most (209).

Calgary can boast the third-best net offence in the league (2777) while conceding the third-fewest point in the CFL thus far (191), though they have not been able to move the ball consistently or keep enough drives alive, with the least amount of first downs after 10 weeks of the season (155).

The up-and-down 2022 campaign for Toronto has hit a bit of a downward trend lately, with Ryan Dinwiddie’s club dropping two of their last three games.

The Argos will be without Andrew Harris for 4-6 weeks with a torn pectoral muscle, a big blow for a team with the third-leading rusher in the CFL.

McLeod Bethel-Thompson had another solid performance, going 24 of 37 for 287 yards and a touchdown without an interception versus the Ti-Cats, as Toronto has a second down conversion percentage of 52.6%, which is bested only by BC at 55.8%.

Toronto has the second-fewest sacks in the league after 10 weeks (16), while they have not been able to get into the passing lanes much with only 19 pass knockdowns, the second-fewest in the CFL.

Prediction- Calgary Stampeders- 33-17 Toronto Argonauts

With no Andrew Harris for the foreseeable future, there will be a ton of pressure on Bethel-Thompson to step up and make big plays, and the Stamps secondary will relish the challenge of likely facing more passing situations as they are first in the league in interceptions with 12.

Overall, Calgary has played solid throughout the season, and their narrow defeats of late should be a great motivator in this game.