CFL WEEK 10 PREDICTIONS

CFL / Football

Written by Joel Lefevre

Week 10 of the CFL season features a pair of rematches from last weekend as the Bombers aim to go 10-0 when taking on the Alouettes, while the Tiger-Cats and Argos renew their rivalry.

The week wraps up with the Stamps looking to gain ground in the race for second in the West versus the BC Lions, while the Elks go for their third win of the season, in the hopes of finally giving their home fans something to cheer about.

Here is a look at every match and my predictions for the week.

Source (Background Photo): CFL

Montreal Alouettes at Winnipeg Blue Bombers

Montreal kept pace with the Bombers for three-quarters last week before crumbling in the fourth, allowing 21 points.

Their defence kept them in that game, with three interceptions plus three sacks, while Tyson Philpot gave them some excellent field position, returning four kicks for 112 yards.

While takeaways are always excellent, Danny Maciocia’s side needs to find a way to keep their opponents out of the end zone more often, conceding the second-most touchdowns (25) in the CFL, while also allowing 228 points, second only to the Edmonton Elks.

Offensively Trevor Harris had one of his worst performances statistically last week, going 16 of 26 for 127 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions.

The Als running game has been a significant benefit throughout the season, currently second in terms of average gains per rush (5.4 yards), though 10 carries for 45 yards as we saw from Jeshrun Antwi last week, will not cut it against this talented Bombers defensive unit.

Winnipeg has faced several challenges throughout the regular season and, in the end, passed each test, thanks to some big fourth quarter, failing to concede a touchdown in the final 20 minutes in four consecutive games.

Their 9-0 record is the seventh-best start in CFL history, as they currently sit second in the league in offensive touchdowns (24), while also allowing the fewest offensive touchdowns after nine weeks (11).

Zach Collaros made some poor decisions against Montreal in week 10, throwing three picks, but also managed to throw for over 200 yards and a pair of scores as he has shown plenty of resilience to shake off some of his poor play.

His offensive line has done a much better job when it comes to creating holes for the running game, as Brady Oliveira had 17 carries for 92 yards against Montreal after rushing for 110 yards on 15 touches versus the Stamps in their previous outing.

They lead the league in interceptions with 12, while Janarion Grant has chipped in on special teams, returning a punt for a touchdown last week, as Winnipeg is tied with Montreal for kick return touchdowns this season as they each have two.

Missing Greg Ellingson over the past couple of games has allowed other receivers to shine as six different players caught passes from Collaros in Montreal, including Drew Wolitarsky and Dalton Schoen, who both had five grabs.

Prediction- Montreal Alouettes 19-24 Winnipeg Blue Bombers

The Bombers always seem to come up big when the game is on the line, and their ability to consistently punch the ball into the end zone, while rarely allowing a touchdown themselves should be enough to put them into double-digits for wins this season.

Toronto Argonauts at Hamilton Tiger-Cats

The Argos saved their best for last at home to Hamilton a week ago, scoring 18 points in the final quarter, improving their record to 4-3, as they remain in first in the East Division.

McLeod Bethel-Thompson failed to throw an interception for a second successive encounter, going 17 of 27 for 230 yards and a touchdown as seven different players had catches.

Andrew Harris is not putting up the big numbers that we have seen from him in years past, but Ryan Dinwiddie and this team continue to plug away on the ground with the veteran currently second in the league with 471 yards rushing.

Toronto has been effective through the air, currently ranked third in passing yard average per game (281.3) and second in completion percentage (70.1%), though they continue to struggle at getting pressure on opposing QBs, possessing the second-fewest sacks (14) in the CFL.

Fourth quarters hampered the reigning East champions for a third successive week as the Boatmen outscored Hamilton 18-3 in the final frame last week, with the Ti-Cats scoring just three points total in the last quarter over their previous three games.

The defensive line had three sacks against the Argos, while Dane Evans threw for 303 yards and a touchdown in a losing effort.

Hamilton’s run game continues to struggle, making them a relatively one-dimensional squad as Don Jackson had 10 carries for 47 yards against Toronto, with the Ti-Cats managing only a 4.4-yard average on the ground after nine weeks.

They have done well to get in those passing lanes defensively, ranked second in knockdowns with 30, though Orlando Steinauer would like to see them have the ball for a little longer on offence, currently with the third-least time of possession average in the CFL.

Prediction- Toronto Argonauts 23-27 Hamilton Tiger-Cats

Hamilton has kept their last few games close, and we anticipate the home crowd while having the third-best net offence will propel them to a victory against their provincial rivals.

BC Lions at Calgary Stampeders

The Lions pay a visit to Calgary, flying high after another convincing victory over the Edmonton Elks.

It sounds like a broken record to say Nathan Rourke was spectacular but he was that and more versus the Elks, going 34 of 37 for 477 yards and five touchdowns.

He and his offence will face a much tougher test in Calgary this week, though Rick Campbell’s squad is a perfect 2-0 away from home this season, scoring 66 points.

Three Lions pass catchers are in the top 10 regarding receiving yards this season, led by Dominique Rhymes (582), and Lucky Whitehead was outstanding last weekend, with six grabs for 148 yards and a major score.

BC holds the best second down conversion percentage (56.7%) in the league, while their secondary continues to quietly play exceptionally well, allowing the fewest passing yards (1572) and completions (135) in the league.

Bo Levi Mitchell and the Stamps offence looked somewhat disjointed against the Redblacks last week, with the Calgary pivot throwing for a mere 137 yards, zero TDs and a pick.

Defensively they came to play with three interceptions, as they continue to be solid in that department, with 10 picks, second only to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

Dedrick Mills had a big day running the ball, with 16 carries for 100 yards against the Redblacks as Calgary sits first in rushing yards (801), averaging 114.4 per game so far this season.

Shutting down a quarterback with the vision and arm strength of Rourke might not be possible, but the Stamps have shown they can limit the damage done to their defensive unit, allowing only six plays of 30 or more yards this year, the fewest in the CFL.

Prediction- BC Lions 24-27 Calgary Stampeders

Do not expect Rourke to have as many wide-open targets against the Stamps secondary as he did versus the Elks, with Calgary rarely allowing many big plays, while their running ability could enable them to keep the potent Lions offence off the field for long stretches.

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Edmonton Elks

Saskatchewan comes into this contest well rested and hungry to prove themselves after allowing 32 points to the BC Lions in week eight, extending their losing streak to three games.

They still lead the CFL in sacks with 28, though they only managed one against the Lions, while leading rusher Jamal Morrow was held in check, carrying the ball eight times for 47 yards.

There is plenty of playmakers for them on the defensive side of things as Larry Dean and Darnell Sankey are first and second in the CFL when it comes to tackles with 49 and 48, respectively, while Pete Robertson is tied for the league lead in sacks (seven) and he and veteran Charleston Hughes each have three forced fumbles, the most in the league.

Cody Fajardo had an underwhelming performance in their previous game, throwing for under 200 yards to go along with an interception, and he and his offence will hope to move the ball more efficiently this week, currently ranked eighth in the league in first downs (141).

Edmonton will be happy to know they don’t have to face BC again until the second to last week of the regular season, as they were scorched through the air against them in their previous encounter, only forcing three incompletions.

Chris Jones’ secondary has been picked apart throughout most of the season, allowing the highest opposition passer efficiency (123.3), conceding an average of 10.3 yards per pass.

Taylor Cornelius threw for 183 yards and a touchdown versus BC as the Elks struggled through the air, and currently have the worst completion percentage in the CFL (61.2%).

There have not been a lot of positives for this squad in 2022, though they have done a decent job of moving the ball at times, sitting fourth in first downs (155), while they have six fumble recoveries, the third-most in the league.

Prediction- Saskatchewan Roughriders 24-17 Edmonton Elks

The Elks did not win a single home game at Commonwealth in 2021, and I expect that streak to continue against a team in Saskatchewan that runs the ball effectively, while the Riders should be able to pressure Cornelius in the backfield numerous times.