CANADA'S WORLD CRUP DRAW ANALYSIS

UEFA / Soccer

Written by Aaron Cantin

It could have been much worse.

That’s the general consensus around team Canada after the FIFA World Cup draw on Friday. Canada was entering the World Cup draw in a tough spot already being placed in Pot 4 (lowest pot) heading into the draw. Considering the countries in Pot 1, placing in Belgium’s group is a small victory. Despite this, some are saying Canada’s group with Belgium, Croatia, and Morocco is the group of death. Personally, I think whatever group Canada was going to be in would be considered the group of death and that’s because Canada was the team everyone wanted to avoid in Pot 4.

Source (Background Photo): Getty Images

Canada, No. 38 in the current FIFA world rankings, will kick off its World Cup campaign in Qatar against second-ranked Belgium on Nov. 23 before facing No. 16 Croatia on Nov. 27. The Canadians will close out Group F play on Dec. 1 versus Morocco (No. 24). The top two nations in the round-robin group advance to the knockout stage of the World Cup.

It also doesn't help matters that Canada will not be able to ease its way into competition in Qatar, with its opening two games coming against group favourites Belgium and Croatia. By the time Canada's third match (and on paper, it's easiest) against the Moroccans comes along, it could quite conceivably already be eliminated if it loses its first two.

The "glass is half full" crowd will point to Canada not being drawn into Group G with five-time World Cup winners and top-ranked Brazil, or into Group E with European heavyweights Spain and Germany. Group H with Portugal and the mercurial

Cristiano Ronaldo, and Group D with reigning World Cup champions France were also trapped doors that Canada avoided.

Source: Canada Soccer

The other three teams in Group F have combined to play in 23 World Cups since the first tournament in 1930 in Uruguay. Canada's only previous World Cup appearance came in 1986 in Mexico when it bowed out in the first round after suffering three shutout losses.

Still, it has to be said, the Canadians face a massive task to advance out of a first-round group that includes two of the best teams in the world in Belgium, semifinalists at the 2018 World Cup in Russia, and Croatia, who were runners-up four years ago.

The Belgians cruised through UEFA qualifying, going unbeaten in eight games (with six wins) and scoring an impressive 25 goals along the way to comfortably top their group ahead of Wales. Coach Roberto Martinez has a squad littered with stars who play professionally at some of the biggest clubs in the world, most notably Kevin De Bruyne (Manchester City), Romelu Lukaku (Chelsea) and Eden Hazard (Real Madrid). The Red Devils' bristling attack should give Canada's defense all it can handle.

Croatia was the surprise package of the 2018 World Cup, having relied on an experienced midfield, anchored by the sublime Luca Modric of Real Madrid, to upset Lionel Messi and Argentina en route to reaching the final where they lost to France. It's an aging Croatia team that manager Zlatko Dalić will take to Qatar (Modric will be 37 at the start of the World Cup).

Morocco should not be overlooked. They are the second-highest ranked African team and currently sit 14 spots ahead of Canada in the latest FIFA rankings. Ayoub El Kaabi, who is a teammate of Canadian fullback Samuel Adekugbe at Turkish club Hatayspor, led the African nation in scoring with five goals in the qualifiers. Forward Youssef En-Nesyri, who plays for Sevilla in Spain, is another dangerous goal-scoring threat.

Now that we know the competition, it’s fair to set a goal. Scoring a goal is the first order of business. Canada’s never done that in a World Cup. Winning a game against any one of the other three teams in Group F would be a triumph. Winning against Belgium or Croatia would be a legendary moment. So, winning something should be the goal.

Is getting out of the group possible? Theoretically. It would have to mean that at least one of the European bigwigs collapses and that Morocco doesn’t like playing in November or something. That is to say, Canada doesn’t just need to be as good as it can be. Other teams need to be less than they should be. Getting out of the group was never likely, but it’s still possible. A lot of unexpected things would have to happen. If the Canadians do manage to get out of the group, more daunting challenges await them in the knockout stages. Group E crosses over with Group F, which means a potential second-round match for Canada vs. either Germany or Spain, who between them have won five World Cups.

Around the groups, - the afternoon’s big winner – if such a thing can be said at this point – was the Netherlands. It fell into the gimme group, Group A, with the host, 3 Qatar. This is Qatar’s first-ever World Cup and it only qualified because it’s paying for everything. England will also be feeling good about its draw – against a mediocre American team, Iran, and the eventual winner of a playoff between Scotland, Wales, and Ukraine.